**The entrenched personal and professional rift between Francis Ngannou and UFC president Dana White remains the dominant factor shaping the 92.5% “No” probability.** White recently restated on the Nightcap podcast that Ngannou is on his “Oscar De La Hoya list” of people he refuses to do business with, citing the fighter’s history with other organizations and past contract disputes that led to Ngannou’s 2023 departure as reigning heavyweight champion. Ngannou has responded by highlighting the multi-year legal battle he waged to exit the promotion. Since leaving, Ngannou has competed sparingly—winning once in the PFL before departing in March 2026 and knocking out Philipe Lins in an MVP MMA bout in May—while pursuing high-profile boxing matches. At age 40 and with Jon Jones retired, no pathway back to the Octagon has emerged, and the mutual animosity shows no signs of cooling before year-end.