Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,592 Vol.
2026/12/31
June 30
5%
September 30
47%
December 31
69%
$15,592 Vol.
June 30
$11,179 Vol.
5%
September 30
$1,502 Vol.
47%
December 31
$2,912 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
音量
$15,592終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$15,592終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula's third-term efforts to fill the STF vacancy created by Justice Luís Roberto Barroso's October 2025 retirement center on Senate confirmation dynamics and pre-electoral positioning ahead of Brazil's October 2026 general vote. His initial November 2025 nomination of Attorney General Jorge Messias was formally transmitted in early April 2026 but rejected 42-34 on April 29—the first such defeat in over 130 years—amid opposition concerns over judicial power and Senate influence. Lula has publicly reaffirmed plans to resubmit Messias or another candidate, potentially a woman, with Senate rules permitting a new indication outside the same legislative session. Key variables include coalition negotiations with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, vote thresholds requiring at least 41 approvals, and timing pressures before the campaign intensifies. These factors shape trader assessments of announcement likelihood by any near-term deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問