Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

$1,969,618 Vol.

2026/12/31

June 30

$745,215 Vol.

<1%

December 31

$18,591 Vol.

13%

$1,969,618 Vol.

June 30

$745,215 Vol.

<1%

December 31

$18,591 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality.

Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

マーケット開始日： May 27, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

音量

$1,969,618

終了日

2026/06/30

マーケット開始日

May 27, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-unit advances around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast since late 2024, including pipeline incursions and probes into northern and western suburbs, but Ukrainian defenders have repeatedly cleared positions and restored control over key urban areas through counterattacks. Independent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Russian troops hold no consolidated ground inside the city proper, with activity limited to sporadic outskirts clashes and failed encirclement efforts near settlements such as Pishchane. Ukrainian forces reported net territorial gains across the front in 2026, including localized improvements east of Kupiansk, amid intensified drone and artillery interdiction. These battlefield realities underpin trader consensus that full capture remains improbable in the near term, with resolution hinging on verified consolidation of the entire city rather than partial claims.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日 2026年6月18日 1:06 UTC

Jun 14 2026

Fierce fighting continues near Kupiansk with expanding control zones

December 31 rises to 21%2%

Reports indicated ongoing heavy fighting near Kupiansk with expanding control zones but no decisive Russian capture. The continued contested status of the area contributed to low market confidence in Russian capture by the resolution dates.

Jun 12 2026

ISW reports continued Russian infiltration missions in Kupiansk area

June 30 rises to 3%1%

Geolocated footage showed ongoing Russian infiltration missions in northern and central Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions. ISW assessments indicated contested control rather than full Russian capture, sustaining low market confidence in a full capture by June 30.

Jun 11 2026

Russian forces conduct infiltration mission in Kupiansk direction

June 30 rises to 3%2%

On June 11, geolocated footage showed Russian servicemembers operating in northeastern Kupiansk during an infiltration mission. ISW assessed that Russian forces remain unlikely to conduct major ground operations in the near term, indicating limited Russian control and no full capture of Kupiansk municipality.

Jun 4 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control and conduct strikes near Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 dips to 11%2%

Geolocated footage and ISW assessments showed Ukrainian forces holding positions and striking Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk in early June 2026. This demonstrated continued Ukrainian control and resistance to Russian advances, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture.

Jun 3 2026

Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration attempts

December 31 dips to 13%4%

Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in Novoosynove southeast of Kupiansk following Russian infiltration missions, indicating active Ukrainian defense and contesting Russian control claims. This maintained downward pressure on market prices for Russian capture by December 31.

Jun 1 2026

ISW reports Russia's monthly land gains collapse to minimal levels including around Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 21%14%

ISW and OSINT data showed Russia's monthly territorial gains in Ukraine collapsed sharply to just 14 square kilometers in May 2026, including around Kupiansk. This indicated a significant operational slowdown and inability to capture new territory, further lowering market expectations for Russian capture of Kupiansk.

Jun 1 2026

Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration missions

On June 1, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions west of Fyholivka and in western Kurylivka near Kupiansk after Russian infiltration missions. Ukrainian forces also cleared nearby areas of Russian infiltrators, indicating continued Ukrainian control and resistance against Russian advances.

Jun 1 2026

Ukrainian forces hit Russian infiltration attempts around Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 12%15%

ISW’s June 1 report documented Ukrainian strikes on Russian infiltration attempts northeast and southeast of Kupiansk, showing that Russian forces were still only conducting limited raids rather than seizing territory. This reinforced market expectations that Russia would not capture the whole municipality, pushing the probability down to single‑digit levels (≈12 %).

Jun 1 2026

ISW reports Russian forces gained minimal territory in May 2026, Ukrainian forces halt offensive

June 30 dips to 1%1%

ISW assessed that Russian forces gained control of only 40.64 square kilometers between December 2025 and May 2026, with Ukrainian forces largely halting the Russian offensive. This confirmed the stagnation of Russian advances near Kupiansk, further reducing market confidence for June 30.

Jun 1 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 dips to 17%4%

Reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces fully control Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts. Ukrainian counteroffensives and strikes on Russian logistics have reduced Russian offensive capabilities, further diminishing the likelihood of Russian capture of Kupiansk by the end of 2026, reflected in the market's low price for the December 31 outcome.

Jun 1 2026

ISW reports Russian forces made minimal territorial gains in May 2026

December 31 drops to 11%7%

A source affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in May 2026, a fraction of previous years' gains. ISW assessed Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in April and minimal gains in May, indicating stalled offensive including around Kupiansk.

May 31 2026

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 13%5%

Footage published on May 30 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Kupiansk after Russian infiltration missions, with reports indicating only isolated Russian groups remain without stable control. This reinforced the view that Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk.

May 30 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 drops to 18%9%

Reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces fully control Kupiansk despite Russian attempts to infiltrate the city in small groups. Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes against Russian positions continued, reinforcing Ukrainian control and reducing the likelihood of Russian capture by the end of 2026.

May 29 2026

ISW reveals Russian generals feed Kremlin false maps exaggerating territorial gains near Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 14%37%

ISW reported that Russian command misreported the Kupiansk sector for months, showing towns as captured that were not, misleading Kremlin leadership and masking a steep slowdown in actual advances. This revelation caused a sharp drop in market confidence for the December 31 outcome.

May 29 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances along Kupiansk axis amid slow progress

December 31 drops to 42%9%

On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered acceleration of advances along the Kupiansk axis, reflecting attempts to match reported territorial gains with actual ground control. However, ISW noted a steep slowdown and inflated Russian claims, indicating limited real progress in capturing Kupiansk.

May 29 2026

Leaked map reveals Russian generals falsely claim capturing towns including Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 26%24%

Leaked maps showed Russian generals feeding the Kremlin false information about capturing towns like Kupiansk, which were never fully taken. Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances possibly to align ground reality with false reports, highlighting Russian setbacks and slowing advances, reducing market confidence in Russian capture.

May 29 2026

ISW exposes false Russian claims of capturing Kupiansk territory

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

ISW revealed that Russian generals provided the Kremlin with inflated maps claiming control of towns including Kupiansk that were never fully captured. This exposed the gap between Russian claims and reality, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to the decline in the probability of Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.

May 29 2026

ISW reports Russian generals misreporting Kupiansk sector gains

December 31 plunges to 28%23%

ISW revealed that Russian military command had been exaggerating territorial control in the Kupiansk sector, with no evidence of Russian forces entering key towns by late May. This exposed inflated claims and slowed advances, undermining confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.

May 29 2026

ISW reveals Russian map falsely shows Kupiansk under Russian control

December 31 drops to 18%9%

ISW published a piece titled “Russian generals feed the Kremlin a false picture” showing that Russian maps still marked Kupiansk as captured while field reports showed no Russian presence. The exposure of the mismatch caused a sharp decline in market confidence, pulling the price down to 18 % on May 31.

May 29 2026

ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate territorial gains near Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 45%6%

ISW published analysis revealing that Russian military command has been providing inflated maps to Kremlin, falsely claiming capture of towns near Kupiansk that were never taken. This exposed a steep slowdown in Russian advances and undermined confidence in Russia capturing Kupiansk fully by year-end.

May 28 2026

Leaked Russian map exaggerates Russian control in Kupiansk, ISW highlights false reporting

December 31 plunges to 28%22%

A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map falsely claimed control of towns including Kupiansk, while ISW confirmed Russian forces had not entered or held significant parts of Kupiansk. This exposed Russian command misinformation and further reduced market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.

May 28 2026

ISW reveals Russian military exaggerations about Kupiansk control amid slow advances

June 30 dips to 3%2%

ISW reported that Russian military command continued exaggerated claims about control in Kupiansk despite evidence of limited Russian presence and slow territorial gains. Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances along Kupiansk axis, reflecting attempts to match ground reality with inflated reports, undermining market confidence.

May 28 2026

Putin expresses belief in capturing Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026, but Kupiansk remains contested

December 31 drops to 18%9%

Despite Putin's confidence in capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Fall 2026, ISW assessments and battlefield realities showed slow Russian advances and continued Ukrainian control in Kupiansk. Russian military command's exaggerated claims about Kupiansk contrasted with evidence of Ukrainian control, leading to further market price declines for full Russian capture by December 31.

May 28 2026

Belousov orders faster Russian pushes in Kupiansk area amid map‑claim controversy

December 31 drops to 27%6%

On May 28 ISW reported that Russian Defense Minister Belousov ordered the Western Grouping to accelerate advances in Kupiansk, Borova and Lyman. The order, combined with widespread criticism of Kremlin‑inflated maps, highlighted a disconnect between Russian ambitions and on‑ground reality, causing a sharp price fall from 33 % to 27 % and a later trough.

May 28 2026

ISW reports Russian military exaggerations about Kupiansk control

December 31 plunges to 27%17%

ISW reported that Russian military command has exaggerated their control over Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces having largely liberated the town by late 2025 and continuing to eliminate remaining Russian infiltrators. This undermined confidence in Russian claims and contributed to the market price decline.

May 28 2026

Leaked Russian map exaggerates control in Kupiansk area, ISW reports

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

ISW reported that Russian generals provided the Kremlin with inflated maps claiming towns like Kupiansk were captured when they were not, masking a steep slowdown in Russian advances. This revelation undermined confidence in Russian territorial gains and contributed to a sharp market price drop for the December 31 outcome.

May 28 2026

ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

ISW revealed that Russian military command exaggerated territorial control near Kupiansk, with no Russian presence in key nearby villages as of May 28. This exposed the gap between Russian claims and battlefield reality, undermining confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk.

May 28 2026

ISW and Russian milbloggers report Kremlin exaggerates Russian control in Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 12%39%

ISW and Russian milbloggers criticized Kremlin and military command for overstating Russian territorial control in Kupiansk, with evidence showing Ukrainian forces largely liberated the town and Russian advances slowed drastically in 2026. This further diminished market confidence in Russian capture.

May 28 2026

Financial Times reports Putin believes Russian forces can capture Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026

December 31 plunges to 33%17%

On May 28, FT reported Putin's belief in capturing all of Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026, but ISW noted slow Russian advances and unclear prospects for such gains, reflecting broader doubts about Russian offensive success including in Kupiansk, influencing market prices downward.

May 28 2026

Russian military command exaggerates advances in Kupiansk area amid Ukrainian control

December 31 dips to 26%1%

Despite Russian claims of advances and orders to increase offensive pace near Kupiansk, ISW reports confirm Ukrainian control with only limited Russian infiltrators remaining. Russian military command's misinformation likely misleads strategic expectations, reducing market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.

May 28 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders accelerated advances along Kupiansk axis

December 31 drops to 46%5%

On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping to accelerate advances along the Kupiansk axis. This was likely an attempt to improve Russian territorial gains to match inflated reports, but ISW noted a steep slowdown in actual advances, reflecting limited Russian progress in capturing Kupiansk.

May 28 2026

ISW: Russian order to accelerate Kupiansk advances unaccompanied by ground gains

June 30 dips to 2%4%

ISW’s May 28 assessment noted that Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered faster advances, but there was no evidence of actual territorial gains around Kupiansk. The disconnect between command promises and field reality caused a brief price dip from 6 % to 2 % as traders discounted the likelihood of a full capture.

May 28 2026

Leaked Russian Defense Ministry map reveals exaggerated Russian control near Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 26%30%

A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map dated April 9 was published, showing frontline positions that ISW assessed as exaggerated, with Russian forces not having fully captured Kupiansk. Russian military command was criticized for misreporting the Kupiansk sector, contributing to market skepticism about Russian advances and causing a sharp drop in the December 31 outcome price.

May 28 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances on Kupiansk axis amid stalled progress

December 31 plunges to 27%23%

On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered acceleration of advances along the Kupiansk axis, likely attempting to match ground realities with inflated reports. ISW noted Russian advances in 2026 had sharply slowed, reflecting operational difficulties and undermining capture prospects.

May 28 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders increased offensive pace near Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 21%6%

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western Grouping of Forces to accelerate advances in the Kupiansk area, reflecting pressure to convert claimed gains into actual control. Despite this, Russian milbloggers complained about exaggerated reports, indicating operational difficulties and contributing to market doubts.

May 26 2026

Report on brutal fighting and Russian infiltration attempts through pipelines near Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 28%22%

Ukrainian forces described intense combat against Russian troops using underground pipelines to infiltrate Kupiansk, with Russian soldiers having very short survival times. This highlights ongoing contested control and challenges for Russian forces to establish firm presence in Kupiansk.

May 26 2026

ISW confirms Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 drops to 12%6%

Geolocated footage and official Ukrainian statements showed Ukrainian forces holding Kupiansk and eliminating Russian infiltrators. Russian attempts to infiltrate were unsuccessful, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured the city, leading to further market price declines.

May 25 2026

Russian forces redeploy from Kupiansk area, indicating abandonment of capture efforts

December 31 plunges to 28%28%

On May 25, ISW reported indicators that elements of the Russian 272th Tank Division were redeploying away from the Kupiansk area to other fronts, suggesting that Russia may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk. This contributed to a sharp decline in market prices for Russian capture by December 31.

May 24 2026

Russian infantry geolocated in northeast Kupiansk amid ongoing attacks

December 31 dips to 27%1%

Geolocated video footage confirmed Russian infantry presence in northeast Kupiansk and ongoing attacks east of the Oskil River, indicating continued Russian pressure but no decisive control. The tense situation and lack of Russian territorial consolidation contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture.

May 21 2026

Russian military command reallocates forces away from Kupiansk area

December 31 dips to 26%2%

Reports indicated that Russian military command planned to move over 1,000 servicemembers from near Kupiansk to the Slovyansk direction, suggesting abandonment of efforts to seize Kupiansk at this time. This strategic shift signaled reduced Russian focus on capturing Kupiansk, reinforcing market skepticism about full capture by year-end.

May 20 2026

ISW assesses Kupiansk as contested 'gray zone' with no firm Russian control

June 30 dips to 2%3%

By May 20, ISW reported Kupiansk as a contested area with neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces holding firm positions, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks and clearing operations. This assessment contributed to the market's decline in probability for full Russian capture by June 30 and December 31.

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with no firm Russian control

December 31 drops to 45%5%

The Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces do not have nearly the presence in Kupiansk as in January 2026, describing it as a contested gray zone. ISW adjusted its control assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks, reducing confidence in Russian capture by December 31.

May 20 2026

ISW says Ukrainian forces have largely liberated Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

ISW’s May 20 offensive‑campaign assessment reported that Ukrainian counter‑attacks had recaptured much of Kupiansk since November 2025 and that Russian forces were only present in a “gray‑zone”. The assessment lowered expectations that Russia would take the whole municipality, driving the market down from the 51 % level on May 28 to the 27 % trough on May 29.

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander reports Kupiansk as contested gray zone with no firm Russian control

December 31 dips to 49%2%

A Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested area with neither side holding firm positions, and ISW adjusted its assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks and absence of Russian control. This indicated Russia had not captured Kupiansk, lowering market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.

May 20 2026

ISW reports Russian forces abandoning efforts to seize Kupiansk, redeploying key units

December 31 drops to 46%5%

ISW reported that elements of the Russian 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and tank regiments were being transferred away from Kupiansk to the Lyman direction, indicating a likely abandonment of efforts to capture Kupiansk. This reduced confidence in Russian capture prospects caused market prices to drop.

May 20 2026

ISW reports Kupiansk largely contested with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing

December 31 dips to 44%2%

On May 20, ISW assessed Kupiansk as a contested "gray zone" with neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces holding firm positions, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian clearing operations and reduced Russian presence. This assessment further decreased market confidence in Russian full capture by December 31.

May 20 2026

ISW describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with reduced Russian presence

December 31 drops to 44%7%

ISW reported that Russian forces no longer held firm positions in Kupiansk, describing it as a contested gray zone with significant Ukrainian clearing operations. This diminished the likelihood of Russia fully capturing Kupiansk by the resolution date, reflected in declining market prices for the December 31 outcome.

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander confirms Kupiansk largely contested, Russian presence minimal

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

A Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested "gray zone" with neither side holding firm positions, and noted Russian forces do not have nearly the presence they had earlier in 2026. This assessment led to market doubts about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with limited Russian presence

June 30 dips to 5%1%

A Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces have significantly reduced presence in Kupiansk compared to January 2026, describing the area as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. ISW adjusted its control assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks, further reducing likelihood of full Russian capture.

May 20 2026

ISW says Kupiansk remains a contested gray‑zone with Ukrainian counter‑attacks

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

ISW’s May 20 assessment described Kupiansk as a contested “gray zone” with Ukrainian counter‑attacks gaining ground and no firm Russian presence, contradicting Russian claims of control. The report signaled a slowdown in Russian advance, prompting traders to cut the probability of a full Russian capture, driving the market down from about 51 % on May 27 to the low‑30 % range.

May 20 2026

ISW maps Kupiansk as contested ‘gray zone’ after Ukrainian clearing operations

June 30 dips to 2%1%

The May 20 ISW update described Kupiansk as a “contested gray zone” with Russian presence far weaker than in January and highlighted Ukrainian clearing operations. This reinforced market sentiment that Russian capture was unlikely, pushing the Yes price down to 2 % by the end of May.

May 20 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

Ukrainian commanders confirmed full control of Kupiansk, describing Russian forces as limited to small infiltration groups using underground pipelines. This contradicted Russian claims of control and led to a significant drop in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.

May 20 2026

ISW notes Russian forces largely absent in Kupiansk, area contested by Ukrainian counterattacks

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

On May 20, ISW highlighted that Russian forces had minimal presence in Kupiansk compared to earlier in the year, describing the area as a contested zone with ongoing Ukrainian clearing operations. This assessment contributed to a sharp decline in market prices for Russian capture by December 31.

May 20 2026

ISW reports Russian forces limited to infiltration and cognitive warfare in Kupiansk area

December 31 drops to 46%5%

ISW reported that Russian forces were conducting infiltration and flag-raising operations to create false impressions of control in Kupiansk, while transferring key units away from the area, indicating abandonment of efforts to seize Kupiansk. This lowered confidence in Russian capture prospects.

May 20 2026

Ukrainian company commander reports Russian sabotage elements eliminated in Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 18%9%

On May 20, 2026, a Ukrainian company commander stated that remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements in Kupiansk were killed or captured by May 18, describing the city as a contested gray zone with no firm Russian control. This further reduced market belief in Russian capture by December 31.

May 19 2026

Ukrainian forces eliminate remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 18%33%

A Ukrainian company commander reported that Ukrainian forces killed or captured the remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements in Kupiansk by May 18, describing the city as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. This indicated Ukraine's effective control and limited Russian presence, reducing likelihood of full Russian capture by December 31.

May 19 2026

Ukrainian commander reports Kupiansk as contested gray zone with limited Russian presence

June 30 dips to 2%1%

A Ukrainian company commander stated that Russian forces do not have nearly the presence in Kupiansk as in January 2026, describing the city as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. Ukrainian forces reportedly killed or captured remaining Russian sabotage elements, indicating no full Russian control.

May 19 2026

Ukrainian commander reports elimination of remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 42%9%

A Ukrainian company commander reported that as of May 18, Ukrainian forces had killed or captured the remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements in Kupiansk, describing the area as a contested gray zone with no firm Russian control. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects by year-end.

May 17 2026

Ukrainian forces conduct clearing operations in Kupiansk and surrounding areas

December 31 drops to 46%5%

Geolocated footage and reports in mid-May showed Ukrainian forces advancing and maintaining positions in areas near Kupiansk, including clearing operations in Kupiansk itself. The Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested "gray zone" with neither side holding firm positions, indicating no full Russian capture.

May 16 2026

Russian forces claim limited advances near Kupiansk but fail to secure key areas

December 31 dips to 46%4%

On May 16, Russian Defense Ministry claimed seizure of Kutkivka near Kupiansk, but ISW and geolocated footage showed only limited infiltration and no firm Russian control in Kupiansk or surrounding villages. This indicated Russian advances were minimal and contested, reducing confidence in full capture.

May 16 2026

Russian forces claim limited gains near Kupiansk but fail to secure city

December 31 drops to 45%6%

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seizure of Kutkivka north of Kupiansk, but ISW and other sources found no evidence of significant Russian control within Kupiansk, estimating only about 14% infiltration. Ukrainian forces actively repelled Russian infiltration attempts, maintaining control of the city. This undermined market confidence in a full Russian capture by year-end.

May 16 2026

ISW reveals Russian generals misreporting control of Kupiansk area

June 30 dips to 2%4%

ISW reported that Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances near Kupiansk, but Russian command had been inflating territorial control claims. ISW found only limited Russian infiltration in Kupiansk and surrounding towns, contradicting Kremlin claims and signaling a stalled offensive, which caused market prices for June 30 to drop further.

May 16 2026

Russian General Gerasimov falsely claims advances west of Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 46%5%

Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces were advancing west of Kupiansk, implying full capture, but this was contradicted by Ukrainian and independent sources showing no such control. This false claim contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.

May 9 2026

ISW reports Russian forces failed to maintain positions in Kupiansk after months of struggle

June 30 dips to 2%4%

ISW assessment indicated Russian forces likely do not maintain positions in Kupiansk after months of struggling to support isolated groups. Ukrainian forces have retained control, and Russian advances stalled with net territorial losses in April 2026, reducing likelihood of full Russian capture by deadline.

May 9 2026

ISW highlights Ukrainian gains and Russian offensive stall in spring 2026

June 30 dips to 3%2%

ISW reported that Ukrainian forces made their most significant gains since August 2024, including liberating large parts of Kupiansk, while Russian forces failed to make operationally significant advances and suffered heavy casualties. This reinforced market skepticism about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by the end of 2025.

May 9 2026

Russian forces use ceasefire to regroup near Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces maintain control

June 30 dips to 3%3%

During the May 9-11 ceasefire, Russian forces reportedly used the pause to regroup and fortify positions near Kupiansk, while Ukrainian forces continued to hold the city. This stalemate reinforced market expectations that Russia would not capture all of Kupiansk by June 30, keeping prices low.

May 8 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces largely control Kupiansk, Russian infiltration limited

June 30 dips to 3%2%

ISW reported that Ukrainian forces have largely liberated Kupiansk and are eliminating remaining Russian infiltrators. Russian forces hold only limited positions on the outskirts, and the infiltration zone likely overestimates Russian presence. This indicated that Russia had not captured the city fully by early May.

May 8 2026

ISW says Ukrainian counter‑attacks have pushed Russian forces into isolated pockets in Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 2%4%

The ISW assessment published on May 8 reported that Ukrainian forces were conducting counter‑attacks in Kupiansk and that Russian troops were largely confined to a few isolated pockets, such as a hospital that had been destroyed. The assessment signaled a clear setback for Russian control of the municipality, prompting market participants to lower the probability of a full Russian capture.

May 8 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces eliminated enduring Russian positions in central Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

ISW assessment on May 8 indicated that Russian infiltration zones in Kupiansk were overestimated and Ukrainian forces had eliminated lasting Russian presence in the city center, undermining Russian control claims and negatively impacting market confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk.

May 8 2026

ISW reports Russian infiltration overestimates in central Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces eliminate Russian positions

June 30 dips to 2%1%

ISW assessed that Russian infiltration zones in central Kupiansk were likely exaggerated and Ukrainian forces had eliminated enduring Russian positions in the city center, indicating no full Russian control. This assessment contributed to declining market confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk by June 30.

May 8 2026

ISW reports intensified Ukrainian counterattacks and limited Russian gains in Kupiansk area

June 30 dips to 4%2%

The Institute for the Study of War noted that Ukrainian forces had liberated large portions of Kupiansk starting November 2025 and continued to conduct intensified strikes against Russian lines, while Russian advances stalled and suffered high casualties. This assessment reduced confidence in Russia fully capturing Kupiansk by the end of 2025, impacting the market price for the June 30 outcome.

May 8 2026

ISW reports Russian presence in Kupiansk overestimated; Ukrainian forces eliminated enduring Russian positions

June 30 drops to 6%6%

ISW assessment indicated that Russian infiltration zones in Kupiansk likely overestimate actual control, with Ukrainian forces eliminating enduring Russian positions in the city center. This confirmed that Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk, negatively impacting market confidence.

May 8 2026

ISW reports intensified Ukrainian strikes degrade Russian offensive capabilities near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 2%1%

ISW reported that Ukrainian forces increased mid-range strikes against Russian logistics and military assets in occupied Ukraine since late 2025, intensifying in early 2026. These strikes degraded Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations, limiting Russian advances near Kupiansk and reducing market confidence in a full capture by June 30.

May 7 2026

Encircled Russian soldiers in Kupiansk hospital killed in Ukrainian airstrike

June 30 rises to 6%3%

A Russian milblogger reported that about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital fought their last battle before being killed by a Ukrainian airstrike, implying Russian forces no longer hold central Kupiansk. This confirmed Ukrainian control over the city and diminished Russian chances of full capture.

May 7 2026

Ukrainian airstrike destroys Russian-held Kupiansk City Hospital, killing encircled Russian soldiers

December 31 plunges to 28%28%

A Ukrainian airstrike on May 7 destroyed the Kupiansk City Hospital where about 20 Russian soldiers had been encircled since December 2025, implying Russian forces no longer hold central Kupiansk. This event significantly reduced market confidence in a full Russian capture by December 31.

May 7 2026

Ukrainian airstrike destroys Kupiansk hospital, killing remaining Russian troops

June 30 dips to 2%4%

A Ukrainian milblogger reported that a group of about 20 Russian soldiers trapped in Kupiansk City Hospital fought their “last battle” after a Ukrainian airstrike destroyed the building, confirming that Russian forces had lost their last foothold inside the city. The news reinforced the perception that Russia could not yet capture the whole municipality and pushed prices sharply lower.

May 7 2026

Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk hospital fight last battle after Ukrainian airstrike

December 31 plunges to 27%19%

On May 7, a group of about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital fought until destroyed by a Ukrainian airstrike, implying Russian forces no longer held central Kupiansk positions, undermining Russian claims and causing market prices for capture to drop sharply.

May 7 2026

Russian forces encircled in Kupiansk hospital fight last battle after Ukrainian airstrike

December 31 plunges to 26%16%

On May 7, a Russian milblogger reported that about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital fought their last battle after a Ukrainian airstrike destroyed the hospital, implying Russian forces no longer held central Kupiansk positions, undermining Russian control claims.

May 6 2026

Russian troops mass‑infiltrate Kupiansk axis ahead of expected spring offensive

December 31 rises to 6%3%

A brief uplift in the Yes price to 6 % on May 3 followed reports that Russian troops were again mass‑infiltrating the Kupiansk axis and that Ukrainian forces were preparing a counter‑offensive. The news was not enough to sustain higher odds, and the price fell back to 3 % by May 9.

May 2 2026

Massive Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities including Kupiansk sector

June 30 rises to 6%3%

On May 2, Russia launched a large-scale aerial attack involving about 268 drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure, including the Kupiansk sector. This intensified fighting but did not translate into full Russian control of Kupiansk, reflected in market price volatility.

May 2 2026

ISW reports Russian infiltration tactics exaggerate control near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 3%2%

On May 2, ISW noted that Russian infiltration tactics partly exaggerate their control of terrain near Kupiansk, with no evidence of full capture. The report highlighted the slowing Russian advance and Ukrainian resilience, leading to a further decline in market price for Russian capture by June 30.

May 2 2026

Ukrainian commander says Russian foothold in Kupiansk remains a contested gray zone

June 30 dips to 2%4%

The May 2 ISW assessment quoted a Ukrainian brigade commander describing Russian attempts to expand a foothold on the left bank of the Oskil River while Russian servicemen remained hidden in basements in Kupiansk. The description of a “gray zone” and limited Russian presence added to market doubts about a full capture, supporting the price decline.

May 2 2026

ISW map revision on May 2 removes Kupiansk from Russian‑controlled area

December 31 dips to 3%2%

The ISW map update on May 2 clarified that no new territory in the Kupiansk municipality had turned red; the earlier “infiltration” artifacts were removed. The market responded with a sharp drop to 3 % Yes, indicating the market now believed a full capture unlikely before the deadline.

May 1 2026

Ukrainian forces kill 10 Russian troops in Kupiansk using drones only

June 30 dips to 3%2%

On May 1, Ukrainian forces reportedly cleared a building in Kupiansk and killed 10 Russian troops using only drones and robotic ground complexes. This demonstrated effective Ukrainian defense and limited Russian foothold, reinforcing market skepticism about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by June 30.

Apr 30 2026

ISW reports Russian advances in Kupiansk area minimal, Ukrainian forces hold contested positions

ISW's April 30 assessment indicated that Russian forces had not made significant advances in Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces conducting clearing operations and holding firm positions, leading to a contested 'gray zone' status rather than full Russian control. This contributed to low market confidence in a full Russian capture by June 30.

Apr 25 2026

Russian forces attempt infiltration into Kupiansk via disused gas pipelines

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Russian troops renewed infiltration attempts into Kupiansk by sending infantry groups through disused gas pipelines, indicating persistent efforts to regain control despite Ukrainian defenses. This tactic highlighted ongoing pressure but limited territorial gains, contributing to market uncertainty and a price decline.

Apr 25 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 3%3%

On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping to accelerate advances along the Kupiansk axis, reflecting pressure to improve battlefield results. However, ISW noted this was likely an attempt to align ground gains with inflated reports, indicating limited real progress and contributing to market price declines.

Apr 23 2026

Russian troops advance slightly closer to Kupiansk, attempt infiltration via Holubivka

June 30 rises to 6%1%

On April 23, Ukrainian sources reported slight Russian advances near Kupiansk and renewed infiltration attempts through Holubivka village, including underground gas pipelines. This indicated ongoing Russian pressure but no decisive control, causing a minor market uptick reflecting potential for future gains.

Apr 23 2026

Gwara Media: Russian advances near Kupiansk remain minimal, claims of control dismissed

June 30 dips to 3%2%

Gwara Media reported that Russian troops had only moved “slightly” closer to Kupiansk and that Russian claims of full control were dismissed as “drug‑fed delirium.” The article highlighted continued Russian pressure but no decisive breakthrough, which helped keep market sentiment low throughout the April‑May window.

Apr 16 2026

Russian claims of advances near Kupiansk contradicted by ISW

June 30 dips to 5%2%

Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed advances west of Kupiansk and control over surrounding settlements. However, ISW assessments found these claims false, with Russian forces holding only small portions and failing to establish fortified positions in Kupiansk, reducing confidence in Russian capture prospects.

Apr 13 2026

Ukrainian forces clear Russian positions near Kupiansk using unmanned systems

June 30 dips to 5%1%

On April 13, Ukrainian National Guard units conducted a fully robotized operation to destroy a Russian fortified position near Kupiansk without deploying infantry or sustaining losses. This demonstrated Ukrainian control and effective defense capabilities in the Kupiansk area, limiting Russian advances.

Apr 13 2026

Russian forces resume assaults on Kupiansk outskirts amid calm city center

June 30 dips to 4%1%

Russian forces launched multiple attacks on the outskirts of Kupiansk, attempting to push back Ukrainian troops and advance toward the town, while the city itself remained relatively calm and under Ukrainian control. This indicated ongoing pressure but no full capture, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term capture.

Apr 13 2026

ISW says Russian attacks near Kupiansk make no progress, Ukrainian counter‑attacks noted

June 30 dips to 3%2%

ISW’s April 13 assessment reported Russian attacks near Kupiansk but no confirmed advances and noted Ukrainian counter‑attacks in nearby villages, signalling a stall in Russian momentum. The market dropped from 5 % to 3 % shortly after, reflecting lower confidence that Russia would capture the municipality.

Apr 12 2026

Russian forces resume active assaults on Kupiansk outskirts

June 30 rises to 6%1%

On April 12, Russian forces carried out multiple attacks in the Kupiansk sector, including areas near Petropavlivka and Podoly, attempting to push back Ukrainian troops and advance toward the town. Despite these assaults, the situation inside Kupiansk remained relatively calm with minimal Russian presence, indicating ongoing contested control rather than full capture.

Apr 12 2026

Russian forces intensify attacks near Kupiansk outskirts

Russian forces resumed active assault operations on the outskirts of Kupiansk, attempting to push back Ukrainian troops and advance toward the town, though the city itself remained relatively calm and under Ukrainian control. This indicated ongoing Russian intent but limited success, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term capture.

Apr 8 2026

Russian forces attack in Kupiansk and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Russian forces launched attacks in Kupiansk and nearby villages such as Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Kurylivka, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked from nearby areas. The fighting was intense but did not result in full Russian control of Kupiansk municipality, maintaining market skepticism.

Apr 7 2026

Russian forces attack Kupiansk and surrounding areas but fail to change control

June 30 dips to 5%2%

Russian forces launched attacks in Kupiansk and nearby settlements including Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Kurylivka, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked from nearby areas. These operations did not result in Russian control of Kupiansk municipality, maintaining Ukrainian hold and dampening prospects of full Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 30 2026

Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts to seize Kivsharivka near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 7%2%

Geolocated footage and reports showed Ukrainian forces capturing Russian soldiers in Kivsharivka and refuting Russian claims of control. Russian forces were assessed to be far from seizing the settlement, indicating continued Ukrainian control in the Kupiansk area and limiting Russian territorial gains.

Mar 29 2026

Reports of Russian territorial gains near Kupiansk create uncertainty but no breakthrough

June 30 rises to 10%1%

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed capture of nearby Kivsharivka and reported territorial gains in Kupiansk, but fighting remained intense and situation unclear. These reports caused minor market fluctuations but did not reverse the overall trend against Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 26 2026

ISW reports Russian infiltrations in Kupiansk direction amid ongoing Ukrainian advances

June 30 dips to 9%1%

By late March, ISW noted Russian infiltrations in the Kupiansk direction but emphasized Ukrainian counterattacks making gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast. The continued Ukrainian control and Russian operational difficulties kept market confidence in a Russian capture very low at 9%.

Mar 25 2026

Russian milbloggers criticize Kremlin claims of Kupiansk seizure

June 30 rises to 10%1%

Russian military bloggers publicly disputed Kremlin and Russian General Staff claims of having seized Kupiansk, highlighting ongoing Ukrainian control and successful counterattacks. This undermined confidence in Russian territorial gains and likely contributed to market skepticism about full Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 25 2026

Russian military command criticized for false claims of Kupiansk seizure

Russian military leaders, including Putin and Gerasimov, claimed multiple times that Russia had seized Kupiansk, but these claims were widely disputed by Russian milbloggers and contradicted by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's visit to the city in December 2025. This undermined confidence in Russian advances in the Kupiansk direction, negatively impacting market expectations for a June 30 capture.

Mar 23 2026

Russian forces launch spring-summer 2026 offensive but face strong Ukrainian resistance

June 30 dips to 7%3%

ISW reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks in March 2026 as part of their spring-summer offensive, but Ukrainian forces retained strong defensive positions including around Kupiansk. This limited Russian gains and maintained low market confidence in a full Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 23 2026

Russian forces engaged in fighting east of Kupiansk near surrounding villages

Russian assault troops were reported fighting near Kupiansk in villages such as Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kurylivka, and Kivsharivka, indicating ongoing attempts to capture remaining areas east of Kupiansk. This showed active Russian offensive efforts but no full capture of the city, keeping market confidence low.

Mar 22 2026

ISW reports Russian offensive buildup near Kupiansk but doubts full capture in 2026

June 30 rises to 7%2%

ISW assessed that Russian forces began their spring-summer 2026 offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including efforts near Kupiansk, but concluded Russia was unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt, including Kupiansk, in 2026 due to strong Ukrainian defenses and limited Russian strength. This tempered market optimism for a June 30 capture.

Mar 19 2026

ISW reports continued Russian infiltration near Kupiansk without territorial gains

June 30 dips to 9%1%

Geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating in Kivsharivka near Kupiansk in infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. Ukrainian forces continued to impose tactical challenges on Russia, reinforcing the market's low probability of full Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 19 2026

Russian forces conduct limited mechanized assaults near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Russian forces launched reduced company- and platoon-sized mechanized assaults in the Kupiansk direction as reconnaissance-in-force missions, aiming to probe Ukrainian defenses ahead of a spring-summer offensive. These limited attacks did not result in significant territorial gains, maintaining the status quo around Kupiansk.

Mar 17 2026

Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kupiansk amid spring offensive preparations

June 30 rises to 10%4%

On March 17, Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Kupiansk, conducting mechanized assaults as part of preparations for a spring-summer offensive. This increased military activity raised short-term expectations of Russian advances near Kupiansk, causing a slight price increase for the June 30 outcome.

Mar 17 2026

Russian General Gerasimov claims significant advances near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 5%1%

On March 17, 2026, Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled over 85% of Novoosynove near Kupiansk and pushed the frontline west of Siversk. However, ISW observed only limited Russian advances and no evidence of control over Novoosynove, indicating exaggeration of battlefield gains. This contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture of Kupiansk by June 30.

Mar 17 2026

Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kupiansk as part of spring offensive preparations

June 30 rises to 10%4%

Russian forces increased mechanized assaults near Kupiansk in mid-March 2026, signaling preparations for a spring-summer offensive. However, these assaults were limited in scale and did not result in significant territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about full capture prospects.

Mar 17 2026

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports more territory retaken than lost in prior 30 days

June 30 dips to 5%1%

On March 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces had retaken more territory than Russia had captured in the previous month, signaling Ukrainian resilience and counteroffensive success near Kupiansk. This news likely reduced market confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026.

Mar 16 2026

Russia plans renewed offensive on Kupiansk but only 20 troops remain in city

On March 16, Ukrainian spokesperson Viktor Trehubov reported that Russian forces were preparing to resume their offensive on Kupiansk, but only about 20 Russian troops remained inside the city, confined to a limited area. This indicated limited Russian control and ongoing Ukrainian dominance, impacting market confidence negatively for a full Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 16 2026

ISW map on March 16 shows Russian troops still confined to a tiny sector east of Kupiansk

December 31 dips to 5%1%

ISW’s daily map update on March 16 showed Russian forces only holding a small pocket east of the Oskil River and still far from the Kupiansk municipal boundary. The market, which priced in the prospect of a Russian capture, fell from 6 % to 5 % Yes shortly after the release, reflecting reduced confidence in a near‑term Kupiansk seizure.

Mar 16 2026

Russian forces in Kupiansk reduced to about 20 troops confined to small area

June 30 drops to 5%6%

Ukrainian spokesperson Viktor Trehubov reported that only about 20 Russian troops remain inside Kupiansk, confined to a limited area and unable to reach outskirts. This indicated Russian failure to capture the city fully, contributing to the market's low price for a Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 12 2026

Ukrainian forces advance on Kupiansk axis, surrounding remaining Russian groups

June 30 drops to 10%8%

By March 12, Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kivsharivka, south of Kupiansk, and controlled the whole Kupiansk municipality with small Russian groups surrounded in high-rise buildings. This confirmed Ukrainian dominance in the area and contributed to the market price decline to around 10%.

Mar 12 2026

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian advances south of Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 14%1%

Footage published on March 10 showed Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka, south of Kupiansk, indicating ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in the area. This further demonstrated Ukrainian control and hindered Russian capture prospects, supporting the market's low price for Russian capture by June 30.

Mar 9 2026

ISW map shows full Ukrainian control of Kupiansk on March 9

June 30 dips to 9%3%

ISW released a terrain‑control map for March 9 showing the entire Kupiansk municipality shaded blue (Ukrainian‑held). The visual confirmation that no part of the city was red on the ISW map caused a further collapse of the ‘Yes’ price, as the market interpreted the map as decisive evidence against a Russian capture.

Mar 9 2026

Ukrainian forces press counterattacks near Kupiansk, forcing Russian operational adjustments

June 30 dips to 15%4%

ISW reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupiansk forcing Russian command to adjust plans due to local tactical setbacks. Russian forces had to draw on reserves to sustain combat, indicating inability to overrun Ukrainian defenses, further diminishing Russian prospects of capturing Kupiansk fully.

Mar 2 2026

Ukraine regains more territory than Russia in February, tightens grip around Kupiansk

December 31 jumps to 19%7%

Ukrainian Pravda quoted Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stating that Ukrainian forces had regained more territory than Russia captured in February and were strengthening control around Kupiansk. The upbeat assessment caused a modest rebound in the market, lifting the price from about 12 % to 19 % on March 2‑4.

Mar 2 2026

Ukrainian forces strengthen control around Kupiansk amid ongoing operations

June 30 dips to 9%3%

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported effective operations strengthening control around Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces regaining more territory than Russia captured in February 2026. This reinforced market doubts about Russian capture prospects, keeping prices low around 9-12%.

Feb 27 2026

Ukrainian military reports besieged Russians in Kupiansk high-rises dwindling

June 30 drops to 12%6%

Ukrainian forces reported that remaining Russian troops in Kupiansk were confined to drone-supplied apartment blocks and unable to leave, with Moscow's February deadline to capture the city passed. This confirmed the failure of Russian efforts and contributed to further market price decline.

Feb 25 2026

Kupiansk operation ongoing but slowing, Russians never fully controlled city

June 30 dips to 13%1%

By February 25, 2026, reports confirmed the Kupiansk operation was still ongoing but at a slower pace, with Russian forces never having full control of the city. This prolonged stalemate and Ukrainian infiltration efforts contributed to the market's continued decline in Russian capture probability.

Feb 25 2026

ISW reports Russian forces seized Pokrovsk but no significant gains near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 15%1%

ISW confirmed Russian capture of Pokrovsk but noted no evidence of Russian forces holding consolidated positions within Kupiansk, indicating stalled advances in the Kupiansk area. This limited progress contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Kupiansk by June 30.

Feb 24 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces hold Kupiansk after December counteroffensive

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk following counterattacks in mid-December 2025, pushing Russian forces out of nearby settlements and maintaining gains despite ongoing Russian efforts. This news likely caused a sharp drop in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.

Feb 24 2026

Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

ISW reported that Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in mid-December 2025 that stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook territory, pushing Russian forces out of several settlements near the town. This undermined Russian claims of inevitable gains and suggested Russia would struggle to capture Kupiansk fully by mid-2026.

Feb 24 2026

Ukraine holds off Russia’s yearlong campaign for Kupiansk with surprise counteroffensive

June 30 dips to 18%4%

Ukraine successfully resisted Russian attempts to seize Kupiansk during a prolonged campaign, culminating in a counteroffensive in December 2025 that maintained Ukrainian control. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects, contributing to further price declines.

Feb 24 2026

Kupiansk remains under Ukrainian control despite Russian infiltration attempts

June 30 drops to 14%6%

Reports confirmed that Russian forces never had full control of Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces holding key positions and Russian troops limited to isolated buildings. This ongoing Ukrainian control undermined Russian claims and further reduced market expectations for Russian capture by June 30.

Feb 24 2026

Ukrainian counteroffensive stabilizes control over Kupiansk

June 30 plunges to 19%31%

Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in mid-December 2025 that stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook significant territory, pushing Russian forces out of several settlements near the town. This halted Russian advances and set the stage for continued Ukrainian control into 2026, reducing market confidence in Russian capture.

Feb 24 2026

Ukrainian forces stabilize control over Kupiansk after December counterattacks

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Ukrainian counterattacks in mid-December 2025 stabilized control over Kupiansk and pushed Russian forces out of nearby settlements, halting Russian advances and undermining expectations of a Russian capture. This news contributed to a sharp drop in market price from 50% to 15% for the June 30 outcome.

Feb 24 2026

ISW assessment: Russian attacks around Kupiansk stall, Ukrainian control holds

December 31 dips to 12%3%

The ISW’s February 24 assessment highlighted that Russian forces were still attacking around Kupiansk but were unable to advance, while Ukrainian forces continued to hold the city and push back Russian infiltrations. The assessment reinforced the view that a Russian seizure was unlikely, driving the market further down.

Feb 24 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian gains of 183 sq km around Kupiansk, Russian forces stalled

June 30 plunges to 13%37%

ISW published a detailed assessment stating that Ukrainian counter‑attacks launched in mid‑December 2025 had stabilized Kupiansk and recaptured about 183 sq km, pushing Russian forces back from the town. The report highlighted that Russia had not regained any ground in the area. This news sharply lowered market confidence that Russia would capture the whole municipality, driving the price from 50 % on Feb 16 down to 13 % by Feb 25.

Feb 24 2026

Ukraine holds off Russian yearlong campaign for Kupiansk with December counteroffensive

June 30 dips to 18%4%

Ukraine successfully repelled Russian attempts to capture Kupiansk during a surprise counteroffensive in December 2025, maintaining control of the city into early 2026. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and limited Russian territorial gains, contributing to the market price decline.

Feb 24 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk after December counterattacks

June 30 drops to 14%6%

The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk since mid-December 2025, repelling Russian advances and holding territory despite Russian efforts to regain ground, reinforcing low likelihood of full Russian capture by mid-2026.

Feb 20 2026

Russian soldiers surrender in Kupiansk amid ongoing Ukrainian operations

June 30 plunges to 22%28%

Russian servicemen in Kupiansk surrendered through the Ukrainian "I Want to Live" program, indicating Ukrainian control and ongoing operations within the city. This event underscored that Russian forces had not secured full control of Kupiansk, negatively impacting market confidence in a complete Russian capture by June 30.

Feb 20 2026

Three Russian soldiers surrender in Kupiansk via “I Want to Live” program

December 31 dips to 12%3%

A report from the “I Want to Live” surrender program said three Russian soldiers surrendered in Kupiansk after contacting Ukrainian forces. While the event did not change the overall control picture, it reinforced the narrative that Russian troops were on the back foot, supporting the continued decline of the market to the low‑teens.

Feb 16 2026

Russian General Staff Chief Gerasimov claims capture of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, denied by Ukraine

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

On January 26 and reiterated in February, Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had captured Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, a claim strongly denied by Ukrainian officials who confirmed the settlement remained under full Ukrainian control. This discrepancy highlighted Russian exaggeration of battlefield gains, contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture of Kupiansk.

Feb 16 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control over most of Kupiansk amid Russian attacks

June 30 plunges to 22%28%

On February 16, Ukrainian forces were reported to control most of Kupiansk, with Russian forces limited to small, isolated groups in high-rise buildings. Russian attacks occurred near Kupiansk but did not result in significant territorial gains, leading to a sharp market price drop from 50% to 22% for the June 30 outcome.

Feb 16 2026

Ukraine reports confident control over Kupiansk with only dozens of Russian troops left

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Ukraine announced it had confident control over Kupiansk, with Russian forces reduced to a few dozen troops trapped in one quarter, signaling failure of Russian attempts to seize the city by the February deadline. This news caused a sharp drop in market price for Russia capturing Kupiansk by June 30.

Feb 16 2026

Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in mid-December 2025 that stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook significant territory, halting Russian advances. This development sharply reduced market confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, causing a steep price drop from 50% to 15%.

Feb 16 2026

Milblogger claims Russian 127th Regiment operating at 40 % strength near Kupiansk

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

A Russian milblogger posted that the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment was down to 40 % manpower, suggesting severe Russian attrition. The claim fed scepticism about Russia’s ability to take Kupiansk, contributing to the abrupt –35‑point swing on Feb 16‑17 that sent the market to 15 % Yes.

Feb 16 2026

Ukraine claims confident control of Kupiansk, Russian presence reduced to dozens

December 31 plunges to 15%35%

Euromaidan Press reported that Ukraine had "confident control" over Kupiansk with only a few dozen Russian troops left. The report quoted Joint Forces spokesman Andriy Trehubov and cited the ISW map. The news signalled to traders that Russia was unlikely to capture the whole municipality, driving the market sharply down from 50 % to about 15 % in the following days.

Feb 16 2026

Ukraine reports confident control of Kupiansk, few Russian troops left

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Euromaidan Press reported that Ukraine had “confident control” over Kupiansk with only a few dozen Russian troops remaining, indicating that Russia was unlikely to capture the whole municipality. This optimism drove the market sharply lower, dropping the Yes probability from 50 % to about 15 % the next day.

音量

$1,969,618

終了日

2026/06/30

マーケット開始日

May 27, 2026, 5:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ngCjTi39GSjbzaC46 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Jun 14 2026

Fierce fighting continues near Kupiansk with expanding control zones

December 31 rises to 21%2%

Jun 12 2026

ISW reports continued Russian infiltration missions in Kupiansk area

June 30 rises to 3%1%

Jun 11 2026

Russian forces conduct infiltration mission in Kupiansk direction

June 30 rises to 3%2%

Jun 4 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control and conduct strikes near Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 dips to 11%2%

Jun 3 2026

Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration attempts

December 31 dips to 13%4%

Jun 1 2026

ISW reports Russia's monthly land gains collapse to minimal levels including around Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 21%14%

Jun 1 2026

Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration missions

Jun 1 2026

Ukrainian forces hit Russian infiltration attempts around Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 12%15%

Jun 1 2026

ISW reports Russian forces gained minimal territory in May 2026, Ukrainian forces halt offensive

June 30 dips to 1%1%

Jun 1 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 dips to 17%4%

Jun 1 2026

ISW reports Russian forces made minimal territorial gains in May 2026

December 31 drops to 11%7%

May 31 2026

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 13%5%

May 30 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 drops to 18%9%

May 29 2026

ISW reveals Russian generals feed Kremlin false maps exaggerating territorial gains near Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 14%37%

May 29 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances along Kupiansk axis amid slow progress

December 31 drops to 42%9%

May 29 2026

Leaked map reveals Russian generals falsely claim capturing towns including Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 26%24%

May 29 2026

ISW exposes false Russian claims of capturing Kupiansk territory

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

May 29 2026

ISW reports Russian generals misreporting Kupiansk sector gains

December 31 plunges to 28%23%

May 29 2026

ISW reveals Russian map falsely shows Kupiansk under Russian control

December 31 drops to 18%9%

May 29 2026

ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate territorial gains near Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 45%6%

May 28 2026

Leaked Russian map exaggerates Russian control in Kupiansk, ISW highlights false reporting

December 31 plunges to 28%22%

May 28 2026

ISW reveals Russian military exaggerations about Kupiansk control amid slow advances

June 30 dips to 3%2%

May 28 2026

Putin expresses belief in capturing Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026, but Kupiansk remains contested

December 31 drops to 18%9%

May 28 2026

Belousov orders faster Russian pushes in Kupiansk area amid map‑claim controversy

December 31 drops to 27%6%

May 28 2026

ISW reports Russian military exaggerations about Kupiansk control

December 31 plunges to 27%17%

May 28 2026

Leaked Russian map exaggerates control in Kupiansk area, ISW reports

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

May 28 2026

ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

May 28 2026

ISW and Russian milbloggers report Kremlin exaggerates Russian control in Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 12%39%

May 28 2026

Financial Times reports Putin believes Russian forces can capture Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026

December 31 plunges to 33%17%

May 28 2026

Russian military command exaggerates advances in Kupiansk area amid Ukrainian control

December 31 dips to 26%1%

May 28 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders accelerated advances along Kupiansk axis

December 31 drops to 46%5%

May 28 2026

ISW: Russian order to accelerate Kupiansk advances unaccompanied by ground gains

June 30 dips to 2%4%

May 28 2026

Leaked Russian Defense Ministry map reveals exaggerated Russian control near Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 26%30%

May 28 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances on Kupiansk axis amid stalled progress

December 31 plunges to 27%23%

May 28 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders increased offensive pace near Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 21%6%

May 26 2026

Report on brutal fighting and Russian infiltration attempts through pipelines near Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 28%22%

May 26 2026

ISW confirms Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 drops to 12%6%

May 25 2026

Russian forces redeploy from Kupiansk area, indicating abandonment of capture efforts

December 31 plunges to 28%28%

May 24 2026

Russian infantry geolocated in northeast Kupiansk amid ongoing attacks

December 31 dips to 27%1%

May 21 2026

Russian military command reallocates forces away from Kupiansk area

December 31 dips to 26%2%

May 20 2026

ISW assesses Kupiansk as contested 'gray zone' with no firm Russian control

June 30 dips to 2%3%

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with no firm Russian control

December 31 drops to 45%5%

May 20 2026

ISW says Ukrainian forces have largely liberated Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander reports Kupiansk as contested gray zone with no firm Russian control

December 31 dips to 49%2%

May 20 2026

ISW reports Russian forces abandoning efforts to seize Kupiansk, redeploying key units

December 31 drops to 46%5%

May 20 2026

ISW reports Kupiansk largely contested with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing

December 31 dips to 44%2%

May 20 2026

ISW describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with reduced Russian presence

December 31 drops to 44%7%

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander confirms Kupiansk largely contested, Russian presence minimal

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

May 20 2026

Ukrainian commander describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with limited Russian presence

June 30 dips to 5%1%

May 20 2026

ISW says Kupiansk remains a contested gray‑zone with Ukrainian counter‑attacks

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

May 20 2026

ISW maps Kupiansk as contested ‘gray zone’ after Ukrainian clearing operations

June 30 dips to 2%1%

May 20 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

May 20 2026

ISW notes Russian forces largely absent in Kupiansk, area contested by Ukrainian counterattacks

December 31 plunges to 27%24%

May 20 2026

ISW reports Russian forces limited to infiltration and cognitive warfare in Kupiansk area

December 31 drops to 46%5%

May 20 2026

Ukrainian company commander reports Russian sabotage elements eliminated in Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 18%9%

May 19 2026

Ukrainian forces eliminate remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 18%33%

May 19 2026

Ukrainian commander reports Kupiansk as contested gray zone with limited Russian presence

June 30 dips to 2%1%

May 19 2026

Ukrainian commander reports elimination of remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 42%9%

May 17 2026

Ukrainian forces conduct clearing operations in Kupiansk and surrounding areas

December 31 drops to 46%5%

May 16 2026

Russian forces claim limited advances near Kupiansk but fail to secure key areas

December 31 dips to 46%4%

May 16 2026

Russian forces claim limited gains near Kupiansk but fail to secure city

December 31 drops to 45%6%

May 16 2026

ISW reveals Russian generals misreporting control of Kupiansk area

June 30 dips to 2%4%

May 16 2026

Russian General Gerasimov falsely claims advances west of Kupiansk

December 31 drops to 46%5%

May 9 2026

ISW reports Russian forces failed to maintain positions in Kupiansk after months of struggle

June 30 dips to 2%4%

May 9 2026

ISW highlights Ukrainian gains and Russian offensive stall in spring 2026

June 30 dips to 3%2%

May 9 2026

Russian forces use ceasefire to regroup near Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces maintain control

June 30 dips to 3%3%

May 8 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces largely control Kupiansk, Russian infiltration limited

June 30 dips to 3%2%

May 8 2026

ISW says Ukrainian counter‑attacks have pushed Russian forces into isolated pockets in Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 2%4%

May 8 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces eliminated enduring Russian positions in central Kupiansk

December 31 plunges to 33%18%

May 8 2026

ISW reports Russian infiltration overestimates in central Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces eliminate Russian positions

June 30 dips to 2%1%

May 8 2026

ISW reports intensified Ukrainian counterattacks and limited Russian gains in Kupiansk area

June 30 dips to 4%2%

May 8 2026

ISW reports Russian presence in Kupiansk overestimated; Ukrainian forces eliminated enduring Russian positions

June 30 drops to 6%6%

May 8 2026

ISW reports intensified Ukrainian strikes degrade Russian offensive capabilities near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 2%1%

May 7 2026

Encircled Russian soldiers in Kupiansk hospital killed in Ukrainian airstrike

June 30 rises to 6%3%

May 7 2026

Ukrainian airstrike destroys Russian-held Kupiansk City Hospital, killing encircled Russian soldiers

December 31 plunges to 28%28%

May 7 2026

Ukrainian airstrike destroys Kupiansk hospital, killing remaining Russian troops

June 30 dips to 2%4%

May 7 2026

Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk hospital fight last battle after Ukrainian airstrike

December 31 plunges to 27%19%

May 7 2026

Russian forces encircled in Kupiansk hospital fight last battle after Ukrainian airstrike

December 31 plunges to 26%16%

May 6 2026

Russian troops mass‑infiltrate Kupiansk axis ahead of expected spring offensive

December 31 rises to 6%3%

May 2 2026

Massive Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities including Kupiansk sector

June 30 rises to 6%3%

May 2 2026

ISW reports Russian infiltration tactics exaggerate control near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 3%2%

May 2 2026

Ukrainian commander says Russian foothold in Kupiansk remains a contested gray zone

June 30 dips to 2%4%

May 2 2026

ISW map revision on May 2 removes Kupiansk from Russian‑controlled area

December 31 dips to 3%2%

May 1 2026

Ukrainian forces kill 10 Russian troops in Kupiansk using drones only

June 30 dips to 3%2%

Apr 30 2026

ISW reports Russian advances in Kupiansk area minimal, Ukrainian forces hold contested positions

Apr 25 2026

Russian forces attempt infiltration into Kupiansk via disused gas pipelines

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Apr 25 2026

Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 3%3%

Apr 23 2026

Russian troops advance slightly closer to Kupiansk, attempt infiltration via Holubivka

June 30 rises to 6%1%

Apr 23 2026

Gwara Media: Russian advances near Kupiansk remain minimal, claims of control dismissed

June 30 dips to 3%2%

Apr 16 2026

Russian claims of advances near Kupiansk contradicted by ISW

June 30 dips to 5%2%

Apr 13 2026

Ukrainian forces clear Russian positions near Kupiansk using unmanned systems

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Apr 13 2026

Russian forces resume assaults on Kupiansk outskirts amid calm city center

June 30 dips to 4%1%

Apr 13 2026

ISW says Russian attacks near Kupiansk make no progress, Ukrainian counter‑attacks noted

June 30 dips to 3%2%

Apr 12 2026

Russian forces resume active assaults on Kupiansk outskirts

June 30 rises to 6%1%

Apr 12 2026

Russian forces intensify attacks near Kupiansk outskirts

Apr 8 2026

Russian forces attack in Kupiansk and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Apr 7 2026

Russian forces attack Kupiansk and surrounding areas but fail to change control

June 30 dips to 5%2%

Mar 30 2026

Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts to seize Kivsharivka near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 7%2%

Mar 29 2026

Reports of Russian territorial gains near Kupiansk create uncertainty but no breakthrough

June 30 rises to 10%1%

Mar 26 2026

ISW reports Russian infiltrations in Kupiansk direction amid ongoing Ukrainian advances

June 30 dips to 9%1%

Mar 25 2026

Russian milbloggers criticize Kremlin claims of Kupiansk seizure

June 30 rises to 10%1%

Mar 25 2026

Russian military command criticized for false claims of Kupiansk seizure

Mar 23 2026

Russian forces launch spring-summer 2026 offensive but face strong Ukrainian resistance

June 30 dips to 7%3%

Mar 23 2026

Russian forces engaged in fighting east of Kupiansk near surrounding villages

Mar 22 2026

ISW reports Russian offensive buildup near Kupiansk but doubts full capture in 2026

June 30 rises to 7%2%

Mar 19 2026

ISW reports continued Russian infiltration near Kupiansk without territorial gains

June 30 dips to 9%1%

Mar 19 2026

Russian forces conduct limited mechanized assaults near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 6%1%

Mar 17 2026

Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kupiansk amid spring offensive preparations

June 30 rises to 10%4%

Mar 17 2026

Russian General Gerasimov claims significant advances near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Mar 17 2026

Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kupiansk as part of spring offensive preparations

June 30 rises to 10%4%

Mar 17 2026

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports more territory retaken than lost in prior 30 days

June 30 dips to 5%1%

Mar 16 2026

Russia plans renewed offensive on Kupiansk but only 20 troops remain in city

Mar 16 2026

ISW map on March 16 shows Russian troops still confined to a tiny sector east of Kupiansk

December 31 dips to 5%1%

Mar 16 2026

Russian forces in Kupiansk reduced to about 20 troops confined to small area

June 30 drops to 5%6%

Mar 12 2026

Ukrainian forces advance on Kupiansk axis, surrounding remaining Russian groups

June 30 drops to 10%8%

Mar 12 2026

Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian advances south of Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 14%1%

Mar 9 2026

ISW map shows full Ukrainian control of Kupiansk on March 9

June 30 dips to 9%3%

Mar 9 2026

Ukrainian forces press counterattacks near Kupiansk, forcing Russian operational adjustments

June 30 dips to 15%4%

Mar 2 2026

Ukraine regains more territory than Russia in February, tightens grip around Kupiansk

December 31 jumps to 19%7%

Mar 2 2026

Ukrainian forces strengthen control around Kupiansk amid ongoing operations

June 30 dips to 9%3%

Feb 27 2026

Ukrainian military reports besieged Russians in Kupiansk high-rises dwindling

June 30 drops to 12%6%

Feb 25 2026

Kupiansk operation ongoing but slowing, Russians never fully controlled city

June 30 dips to 13%1%

Feb 25 2026

ISW reports Russian forces seized Pokrovsk but no significant gains near Kupiansk

June 30 dips to 15%1%

Feb 24 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces hold Kupiansk after December counteroffensive

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 24 2026

Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 24 2026

Ukraine holds off Russia’s yearlong campaign for Kupiansk with surprise counteroffensive

June 30 dips to 18%4%

Feb 24 2026

Kupiansk remains under Ukrainian control despite Russian infiltration attempts

June 30 drops to 14%6%

Feb 24 2026

Ukrainian counteroffensive stabilizes control over Kupiansk

June 30 plunges to 19%31%

Feb 24 2026

Ukrainian forces stabilize control over Kupiansk after December counterattacks

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 24 2026

ISW assessment: Russian attacks around Kupiansk stall, Ukrainian control holds

December 31 dips to 12%3%

Feb 24 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian gains of 183 sq km around Kupiansk, Russian forces stalled

June 30 plunges to 13%37%

Feb 24 2026

Ukraine holds off Russian yearlong campaign for Kupiansk with December counteroffensive

June 30 dips to 18%4%

Feb 24 2026

ISW reports Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk after December counterattacks

June 30 drops to 14%6%

Feb 20 2026

Russian soldiers surrender in Kupiansk amid ongoing Ukrainian operations

June 30 plunges to 22%28%

Feb 20 2026

Three Russian soldiers surrender in Kupiansk via “I Want to Live” program

December 31 dips to 12%3%

Feb 16 2026

Russian General Staff Chief Gerasimov claims capture of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, denied by Ukraine

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 16 2026

Ukrainian forces maintain control over most of Kupiansk amid Russian attacks

June 30 plunges to 22%28%

Feb 16 2026

Ukraine reports confident control over Kupiansk with only dozens of Russian troops left

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 16 2026

Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 16 2026

Milblogger claims Russian 127th Regiment operating at 40 % strength near Kupiansk

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 16 2026

Ukraine claims confident control of Kupiansk, Russian presence reduced to dozens

December 31 plunges to 15%35%

Feb 16 2026

Ukraine reports confident control of Kupiansk, few Russian troops left

June 30 plunges to 15%35%

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「December 31」で13%、次いで「June 30」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、13¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に13%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」は$2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 4, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「December 31」で13%であり、市場がこの結果に13%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「June 30」で0%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。

はい。情報を得るために取引する必要はありません。このページは「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」のライブトラッカーとして機能します。結果の確率は新しい取引が入るにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。このページをブックマークし、コメントセクションで他のトレーダーの意見を確認できます。チャートの時間範囲フィルターを使用して、オッズが時間とともにどのように変化したかを確認することもできます。市場が何を予測しているかを無料でリアルタイムに見ることができます。

Polymarketのオッズは、自分の信念に実際のお金を投じる本物のトレーダーによって設定されており、正確な予測を生み出す傾向があります。“Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?”で$2 millionが取引されており、これらの価格は何千人もの参加者の集合的な知識と確信を集約しています——世論調査、専門家の予測、従来の調査を上回ることも多いです。Polymarketのような予測市場は、特にイベントが決済日に近づくにつれて、精度の実績が優れています。例えば、Polymarketの1ヶ月精度スコアは94%です。Polymarketの予測精度に関する最新統計は、精度ページをご覧ください。

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」で最初の取引を行うには、無料のPolymarketアカウントに登録し、暗号通貨、クレジットカードまたはデビットカード、銀行振込で入金してください。アカウントに入金したら、このページに戻り、取引したい結果を選び、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックしてください。予測市場が初めての方は、Polymarketの任意のページ上部にある「仕組み」リンクをクリックして、ステップバイステップのガイドをご覧ください。

Polymarketでは、各結果の価格は市場の暗示確率を表します。「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」市場における「December 31」の価格13¢は、トレーダーが「December 31」が正しい結果となる確率をおよそ13%と集合的に評価していることを意味します。13¢で「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が正しければ、シェアあたり$1.00を受け取ります。つまりシェアあたり87¢の利益です。正しくない場合、そのシェアは$0の価値になります。

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」市場はJun 29, 2026前後に決済される予定です。つまり、その日までは取引が可能で、オッズは新しい情報の出現に伴い変化し続けます。正確な決済タイミングは「ルール」セクションに記載されている通り、公式結果がいつ利用可能になるかによって異なります。

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」市場には167件のコメントによる活発なコミュニティがあり、トレーダーが分析を共有し、結果を議論し、最新の動向について話し合っています。下のコメントセクションまでスクロールして、他の参加者の意見を読んでください。「トップホルダー」でフィルタリングしたり、「アクティビティ」タブでリアルタイムの取引フィードを確認することもできます。

Polymarketは世界最大の予測市場で、現実世界のイベントについて最新情報を得て、知識から利益を得ることができます。トレーダーは政治や選挙から暗号通貨、金融、スポーツ、テクノロジー、文化まで幅広いトピックの結果のシェアを売買しています。「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」のような市場も含まれます。価格は金融的確信に裏付けられたリアルタイムの確率を反映しており、世論調査、評論家、従来の調査よりも迅速で正確なシグナルを提供することがよくあります。

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

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よくある質問

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」予測市場とは何ですか？

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」はPolymarketでどれくらいの取引活動を生み出しましたか？

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」で取引するにはどうすればいいですか？

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」の現在のオッズは？

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」はどのように決済されますか？

取引せずに「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」をフォローできますか？

Polymarketの「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」のオッズはなぜ信頼できるのですか？

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」で取引を始めるにはどうすればいいですか？

「December 31」の価格13¢は何を意味しますか？

「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」市場はいつ閉じますか？

トレーダーは「Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?」について何と言っていますか？

Polymarketとは何ですか？