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icon for Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？

Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？

icon for Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？

Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？

はい

8% 確率
Polymarket

$800,237 Vol.

はい

8% 確率
Polymarket

$800,237 Vol.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 92.3% for the Doge-1 lunar mission launching before 2027, driven by over five years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement as a Dogecoin-funded 12U CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX's Falcon 9. Absent from official SpaceX launch manifests as of May 2026, the mission hinges on Intuitive Machines' Nova-C IM-3 lunar lander primary payload, which lacks a firm schedule amid integration and technical hurdles. Elon Musk's February 2026 remark of "maybe next year" (2027) and Geometric Energy's unconfirmed April H2 2026 target underscore persistent uncertainty in spacecraft readiness, lunar trajectory windows, and rideshare prioritization. A surprise SpaceX manifest update or accelerated IM-3 progress could challenge this, but historical precedent for such secondary payloads favors further slips.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
音量
$800,237
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 92.3% for the Doge-1 lunar mission launching before 2027, driven by over five years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement as a Dogecoin-funded 12U CubeSat rideshare on SpaceX's Falcon 9. Absent from official SpaceX launch manifests as of May 2026, the mission hinges on Intuitive Machines' Nova-C IM-3 lunar lander primary payload, which lacks a firm schedule amid integration and technical hurdles. Elon Musk's February 2026 remark of "maybe next year" (2027) and Geometric Energy's unconfirmed April H2 2026 target underscore persistent uncertainty in spacecraft readiness, lunar trajectory windows, and rideshare prioritization. A surprise SpaceX manifest update or accelerated IM-3 progress could challenge this, but historical precedent for such secondary payloads favors further slips.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
音量
$800,237
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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よくある質問

「Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ドージ1号月面ミッションは2027年より前に打ち上げられますか？」で8%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、8¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に8%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？」は$800.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 7, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？」の現在のリーダーは「ドージ1号月面ミッションは2027年より前に打ち上げられますか？」でわずか8%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Doge -1ルナーミッションは2027年までに打ち上げられますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。