**Current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have already reached or surpassed the +2.0°C Relative Oceanic Niño Index threshold that defines a very strong (“super”) El Niño, with weekly values near +2.8–2.9°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño strengthening rapidly, issuing a greater than 90% probability of very strong conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance the event exceeds all prior records since 1950 on the three-month RONI metric. Multi-model ensembles from IRI, JMA, and ECMWF converge on a peak during October–December 2026, supported by deep subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling. While three-month averaging and potential late-season model spread introduce limited uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus make a drop below very strong thresholds unlikely before winter resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日今年の冬（ 2026 ～ 27年）にスーパーエルニーニョはありますか？
今年の冬（ 2026 ～ 27年）にスーパーエルニーニョはありますか？
はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2027/03/31
はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2027/03/31
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**Current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have already reached or surpassed the +2.0°C Relative Oceanic Niño Index threshold that defines a very strong (“super”) El Niño, with weekly values near +2.8–2.9°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño strengthening rapidly, issuing a greater than 90% probability of very strong conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance the event exceeds all prior records since 1950 on the three-month RONI metric. Multi-model ensembles from IRI, JMA, and ECMWF converge on a peak during October–December 2026, supported by deep subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling. While three-month averaging and potential late-season model spread introduce limited uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus make a drop below very strong thresholds unlikely before winter resolution.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
音量
$9,246終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**Current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have already reached or surpassed the +2.0°C Relative Oceanic Niño Index threshold that defines a very strong (“super”) El Niño, with weekly values near +2.8–2.9°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño strengthening rapidly, issuing a greater than 90% probability of very strong conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance the event exceeds all prior records since 1950 on the three-month RONI metric. Multi-model ensembles from IRI, JMA, and ECMWF converge on a peak during October–December 2026, supported by deep subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling. While three-month averaging and potential late-season model spread introduce limited uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus make a drop below very strong thresholds unlikely before winter resolution.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
音量
$9,246終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have already reached or surpassed the +2.0°C Relative Oceanic Niño Index threshold that defines a very strong (“super”) El Niño, with weekly values near +2.8–2.9°C.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño strengthening rapidly, issuing a greater than 90% probability of very strong conditions persisting through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% chance the event exceeds all prior records since 1950 on the three-month RONI metric. Multi-model ensembles from IRI, JMA, and ECMWF converge on a peak during October–December 2026, supported by deep subsurface warmth and atmospheric coupling. While three-month averaging and potential late-season model spread introduce limited uncertainty, the current trajectory and consensus make a drop below very strong thresholds unlikely before winter resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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