Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日今年の冬（ 2026 ～ 27年）にスーパーエルニーニョはありますか？
今年の冬（ 2026 ～ 27年）にスーパーエルニーニョはありますか？
はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2027/03/31
はい
94% 確率
新規
新規
2027/03/31
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
音量
$9,248終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
音量
$9,248終了日
2027/04/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Current sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region have already climbed above +2.8°C, with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reporting a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño (peak ≥ +2.0°C) during fall and winter 2026–27 and a 75% likelihood of a historic event exceeding all prior episodes since 1950. Model consensus from the IRI, JMA, and GFDL SPEAR systems aligns on further intensification through an October–December or November–January peak, supported by subsurface heat content and atmospheric coupling. Weekly and monthly Niño index updates plus the next CPC outlook will provide the primary near-term catalysts for any reassessment, though rapid weakening before the seasonal maximum remains the main scenario that could prevent confirmation of super El Niño status.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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