Traders assign a 64.5% implied probability to no European country banning X by year-end because the EU’s Digital Services Act enforcement has so far produced fines and legal appeals rather than outright platform removal. The December 2025 €120 million penalty for transparency violations under the DSA triggered an immediate challenge at the General Court in February 2026, with an oral hearing expected later this year; no member state has launched the formal national proceedings needed for a ban. Public polling shows only moderate support for exclusion even among Europeans, while X’s ongoing compliance negotiations and appeal process keep outright prohibition off the immediate horizon. Key upcoming catalysts include the court ruling and any new DSA compliance deadlines, both of which would need to escalate dramatically before a country-level ban becomes realistic.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,413 Vol.
$10,413 Vol.
2026/12/31
$10,413 Vol.
$10,413 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 64.5% implied probability to no European country banning X by year-end because the EU’s Digital Services Act enforcement has so far produced fines and legal appeals rather than outright platform removal. The December 2025 €120 million penalty for transparency violations under the DSA triggered an immediate challenge at the General Court in February 2026, with an oral hearing expected later this year; no member state has launched the formal national proceedings needed for a ban. Public polling shows only moderate support for exclusion even among Europeans, while X’s ongoing compliance negotiations and appeal process keep outright prohibition off the immediate horizon. Key upcoming catalysts include the court ruling and any new DSA compliance deadlines, both of which would need to escalate dramatically before a country-level ban becomes realistic.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
音量
$10,413終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 64.5% implied probability to no European country banning X by year-end because the EU’s Digital Services Act enforcement has so far produced fines and legal appeals rather than outright platform removal. The December 2025 €120 million penalty for transparency violations under the DSA triggered an immediate challenge at the General Court in February 2026, with an oral hearing expected later this year; no member state has launched the formal national proceedings needed for a ban. Public polling shows only moderate support for exclusion even among Europeans, while X’s ongoing compliance negotiations and appeal process keep outright prohibition off the immediate horizon. Key upcoming catalysts include the court ruling and any new DSA compliance deadlines, both of which would need to escalate dramatically before a country-level ban becomes realistic.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$10,413終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 64.5% implied probability to no European country banning X by year-end because the EU’s Digital Services Act enforcement has so far produced fines and legal appeals rather than outright platform removal. The December 2025 €120 million penalty for transparency violations under the DSA triggered an immediate challenge at the General Court in February 2026, with an oral hearing expected later this year; no member state has launched the formal national proceedings needed for a ban. Public polling shows only moderate support for exclusion even among Europeans, while X’s ongoing compliance negotiations and appeal process keep outright prohibition off the immediate horizon. Key upcoming catalysts include the court ruling and any new DSA compliance deadlines, both of which would need to escalate dramatically before a country-level ban becomes realistic.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問