Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트민주당 8-10% 16%
민주당 10-12% 13%
공화당 0-2% 9.6%
민주당 6-8% 8%
$34,848 거래량
$34,848 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당 16% 이상
3%
민주당 14-16%
3%
민주당 12~14%
4%
민주당 10-12%
13%
민주당 8-10%
16%
민주당 6-8%
8%
민주당 4~6%
7%
민주당 2~4%
3%
민주당 0~2%
5%
공화당 0-2%
10%
공화당 2-4%
8%
공화당 4-6%
2%
공화당 6%+
3%
민주당 8-10% 16%
민주당 10-12% 13%
공화당 0-2% 9.6%
민주당 6-8% 8%
$34,848 거래량
$34,848 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당 16% 이상
$804 거래량
3%
민주당 14-16%
$476 거래량
3%
민주당 12~14%
$462 거래량
4%
민주당 10-12%
$830 거래량
13%
민주당 8-10%
$1,555 거래량
16%
민주당 6-8%
$693 거래량
8%
민주당 4~6%
$258 거래량
7%
민주당 2~4%
$1,012 거래량
3%
민주당 0~2%
$889 거래량
5%
공화당 0-2%
$864 거래량
10%
공화당 2-4%
$26,019 거래량
8%
공화당 4-6%
$230 거래량
2%
공화당 6%+
$757 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
마켓 개설일: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
거래량
$34,848종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
거래량
$34,848종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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