Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9 percent has sustained the peso’s crawling-band depreciation under the Milei administration’s January 2026 regime, lifting the official USD/ARS rate from roughly 1,395 in early May toward levels that position the 1,600-plus bracket at a 44 percent implied probability. Analyst consensus now projects full-year 2026 inflation of 30–33 percent, while the central bank accumulates reserves ahead of nearly 20 billion dollars in maturing obligations, reinforcing expectations for continued nominal weakening. A recent Fitch upgrade to B- and improved fiscal balances have tempered tail risks, yet the remaining gap to the parallel rate and sticky utility-price adjustments continue to support the market’s heaviest weighting on the 1,550–1,599 and 1,500–1,549 ranges.