Arsenal hold a narrow two-point advantage over Manchester City with just two matches remaining, positioning the Gunners to clinch the Premier League title by winning their final fixtures against Burnley and Crystal Palace. Recent results have reinforced this edge, including a late 1-0 victory at West Ham and Manchester City’s 3-0 midweek win over Crystal Palace that kept the champions-elect within striking distance on goal difference. The title race has tightened after both sides traded momentum swings through April and early May, with Arsenal maintaining superior consistency in key matches and controlling their own destiny. Traders reflect this in the implied probabilities, viewing any further Arsenal slip as the primary risk that could hand Pep Guardiola’s side a late opening on the final day.