Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Market trims bets on July Fed rate hike after mixed economic data
No change jumps to 82%14%
Following the June FOMC meeting, market participants adjusted their expectations for the July meeting, reducing the probability of a rate hike as some economic data suggested uncertainty. This caused some volatility in the market prices for the July Fed decision, with the no change option price recovering somewhat after mid-June lows.
May PCE inflation data shows persistent inflation pressures
25 bps increase dips to 23%2%
The May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report indicated inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed's hawkish stance and sustaining market expectations for a possible 25 bps rate increase in July.
CME FedWatch Tool Shows 62.6% Probability of No Rate Change in July, 37.4% for 25 bps Hike
No change rises to 76%2%
Market data from CME FedWatch on June 24 indicated a 62.6% chance that the Fed would hold rates steady in July and a 37.4% chance of a 25 basis point increase. This reflected ongoing uncertainty but a tilt toward a possible modest hike, consistent with Fed communications and inflation data.
Fed Governor Cook Highlights Small Business Conditions at Symposium
Governor Cook's remarks at the Small Business Symposium highlighted ongoing economic resilience and challenges, reinforcing the Fed's data-dependent approach. This maintained market caution but did not significantly alter rate hike expectations.
Bank of America revises outlook to expect Fed rate hikes in 2026 following June FOMC meeting
25 bps increase jumps to 25%5%
Following the June FOMC meeting and hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Bank of America changed its base case from steady rates to expecting a series of rate hikes in 2026. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase at the July meeting, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase price.
Fed Governor Waller Discusses International Role of U.S. Dollar
Governor Waller's remarks on the U.S. dollar's international role underscored the Fed's cautious stance amid global uncertainties, indirectly supporting a hawkish outlook on rates. This contributed to sustaining market expectations for a rate increase in July.
Bank of America revises forecast to three rate hikes in 2026
25 bps increase drops to 18%8%
On June 22, Bank of America analysts updated their forecast to predict three quarter-point rate hikes by the Fed in 2026, lifting the benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.5%. This hawkish outlook reinforced market expectations for rate increases rather than cuts.
Fed officials signal reduced urgency for rate cuts amid stronger growth and inflation
25 bps increase drops to 82%11%
On June 18, 2026, Federal Reserve communications indicated that recent data showed stronger economic growth and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. This led markets to sharply lower the probability of no change and increase the odds of a 25 bps rate hike in July.
Fed maintains interest on reserve balances, reinforcing steady policy stance
No change rises to 74%2%
Following the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, supporting the steady monetary policy stance and reinforcing market expectations of no immediate rate changes at the July meeting.
Fed signals possible rate hike later in 2026 amid elevated inflation
25 bps increase surges to 20%15%
Alongside holding rates steady, the Fed's updated economic projections raised the expected year-end federal funds rate to 3.8%, up from 3.4%, signaling a hawkish pivot. Inflation forecasts were increased, and the labor market was described as resilient, supporting the possibility of a rate hike later in the year. This caused market prices to shift, increasing the chance of a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed Shortens Policy Statement and Removes Easing Bias
No change plunges to 77%16%
The FOMC released a stripped-down policy statement that completely removed its previous forward guidance and easing bias, signaling a return to a simpler, data-dependent format under new Chair Kevin Warsh. This change led to a sharp drop in the probability of the 'No change' outcome as markets priced in a higher-for-longer rate path.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Abandons Forward Guidance and Revamps Policy Statement
No change plunges to 72%21%
In his debut meeting, Chairman Warsh shortened the FOMC statement and eliminated forward guidance, removing the language anchors that market participants relied on to predict future rate cuts.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Hawkish Dot Plot Signals Possible Hike in 2026
25 bps increase surges to 21%18%
At Chairman Kevin Warsh's first rate-setting meeting, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the updated dot plot showed a hawkish shift, with nine of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, which reduced expectations of a prolonged pause and increased the odds of a future rate hike.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins tenure with steady rates and hawkish outlook
25 bps increase dips to 25%2%
Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair resulted in a unanimous decision to hold rates steady but with a hawkish tone in the statement and projections, indicating a shift from prior easing bias to potential rate hikes later in 2026.
Fed dot plot flips to signal rate hike in 2026
25 bps increase surges to 27%21%
The June 2026 Fed dot plot showed a median year-end fed funds rate projection of 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, indicating a shift from expected cuts to hikes. This hawkish projection influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removes easing bias and slashes forward guidance in new statement
No change plunges to 79%15%
The FOMC's post-meeting statement was significantly shortened, completely removing the previous easing bias and forward guidance, signaling a return to a simpler format and a higher-for-longer rate path.
Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting, signals possible hike later in 2026
No change plunges to 74%19%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but raised inflation projections and removed easing bias from its statement. The median forecast for the federal funds rate increased to 3.8% for 2026, indicating a potential 25 bps hike later in the year. This hawkish tone caused the market price for 'No change' to dip slightly and the price for a 25 bps increase to rise toward the end of the analysis window.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting
No change jumps to 82%6%
In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh led the FOMC to unanimously keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, while signaling a more hawkish outlook with projections for possible rate hikes later in 2026. The decision reflected ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, maintaining market expectations of no immediate change but potential future increases.
Fed Projections Turn Hawkish Amid Persistent Inflation
No change plunges to 75%18%
The Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal funds rate forecast for 2026 increased, with nine of 19 policymakers now anticipating a rate hike by year-end 2026.
Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged in First Meeting Under Chair Kevin Warsh
No change dips to 76%1%
At Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, the committee unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement highlighted elevated inflation due to supply shocks and geopolitical uncertainty, signaling a cautious approach with possible rate hikes later in the year but no immediate changes.
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Signals Hawkish Shift in Dot Plot Projections
25 bps increase jumps to 17%14%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the updated dot plot revealed a hawkish pivot, with nine of 19 officials projecting a rate hike by the end of 2026, causing 'No change' odds to drop slightly as '25 bps increase' expectations surged.
Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting but signals future hikes
25 bps increase surges to 21%18%
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the Fed removed its previous easing bias from the policy statement and released updated projections showing that nearly half of the officials anticipate a rate hike by the end of 2026.
Kevin Warsh begins Fed chairmanship with hawkish policy stance
No change drops to 81%12%
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting featured a unanimous decision to hold rates steady but removed forward guidance favoring cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach and signaling readiness for future hikes. This reinforced market expectations of no cuts and increased the likelihood of a 25 bps hike later in 2026.
Fed's Summary of Economic Projections shows hawkish shift with rate hikes expected
25 bps increase surges to 27%22%
Alongside the June 17 rate decision, the Fed released updated economic projections (dot plot) showing nine of 19 policymakers anticipate at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, a shift from prior expectations of cuts. Inflation forecasts were raised, and GDP growth was slightly lowered, signaling a more cautious and hawkish stance that influenced market pricing toward a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh
25 bps increase jumps to 20%14%
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, removing prior language suggesting easing and signaling possible rate hikes later in the year. This hawkish shift raised market expectations for a 25 bps increase in July.
June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections shows higher inflation outlook and rate hike expectations
25 bps increase jumps to 20%14%
The Fed's June Summary of Economic Projections raised the median PCE inflation forecast for 2026 to 3.6% and showed nine officials favoring at least one rate hike by year-end, reinforcing the market's shift toward pricing a 25 bps increase in July.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% in June Meeting
25 bps increase surges to 25%21%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously voted to keep rates unchanged but signaled possible future hikes due to ongoing inflation pressures. This statement shifted market expectations, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in July and reducing the likelihood of no change.
Fed's updated economic projections show majority expect rate hike by end of 2026
25 bps increase jumps to 16%12%
The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections revealed that nine of 19 policymakers anticipate at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, a shift from prior expectations of cuts. Inflation forecasts were raised, and the median funds rate projection for year-end 2026 increased to 3.8%, reinforcing market pricing for a 25 bps increase in the July meeting.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh
No change drops to 80%13%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. The statement removed forward guidance and reflected a hawkish shift with nine of 19 policymakers expecting a rate hike by the end of 2026. This led to a market reassessment, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase and decreasing expectations for cuts.
Warsh Launches Hawkish Review of Fed Forward Guidance
No change plunges to 75%18%
Chairman Kevin Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's communication strategy, opting for a stripped-down policy statement that removed forward guidance on future rate decisions.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting
25 bps increase surges to 26%22%
The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing solid economic growth and elevated inflation. The statement removed the previous easing bias and indicated readiness for future rate hikes, causing markets to price in a higher chance of a 25 bps increase in July.
Fed Chair Warsh Expected to Withhold Dot from Central Bank's Interest Rate Outlook
No change dips to 92%3%
Reports emerged that newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would withhold his individual interest-rate projection from the Fed's quarterly dot plot. This move signaled his skepticism toward forward guidance and introduced strategic ambiguity ahead of his first FOMC meeting.
FOMC Meeting Holds Federal Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75%
No change jumps to 79%5%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement emphasized solid economic growth and elevated inflation, dropping any easing bias and signaling a potential 25 bps hike later in 2026, shifting market expectations toward a hawkish stance.
United States and Iran Reach Preliminary Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
No change rises to 94%1%
The U.S. and Iran agreed on a preliminary framework to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of easing the energy-driven inflation pressures that have kept interest rates high.
US and Iran Announce Interim Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The announcement of a preliminary peace deal sparked a sharp drop in global oil prices, easing some immediate inflation fears but setting the stage for a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting under new leadership.
US May CPI inflation rises 4.2% year-over-year, matching expectations
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for May 2026, showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase. This persistent inflation, driven in part by energy price shocks, kept pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its June policy meeting.
May 2026 CPI report shows 4.2% annual inflation amid energy price surge
25 bps increase jumps to 16%11%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.2% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for May 2026, driven largely by a 23.5% surge in energy costs linked to Middle East tensions. This inflation data heightened market concerns about persistent inflation, influencing expectations for Federal Reserve tightening.
Rising inflation and Fed officials signal rate hikes back on the table
25 bps increase surges to 18%15%
In early June, Federal Reserve officials indicated that inflation was taking longer to return to target levels, reversing earlier expectations of rate cuts. This increased market expectations for at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end, raising the probability of a July increase.
US Inflation Reaches 4.2% in May, Highest Since April 2023
25 bps increase surges to 25%19%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline consumer price inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven by a massive surge in energy costs. This hotter-than-expected print forced markets to completely price out rate cuts for 2026 and begin pricing in potential rate hikes.
Jerome Powell signals likely pause in rate hikes at June meeting
No change rises to 94%1%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve would likely forgo an interest rate increase at the June meeting, citing that the current rate level was sufficiently restrictive to slow growth and inflation. This reassured markets about a pause, increasing the probability of no change in July.
US Consumer Inflation Jumps to 4.2% in May on Rising Energy Costs
No change rises to 93%3%
U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, marking the fastest pace of inflation in three years due to energy price spikes from the war in Iran. The hot print solidified expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates elevated and potentially hike them later in the year.
May Consumer Price Index Shows Inflation Accelerating to 4.2% Annually
25 bps increase jumps to 25%5%
The May CPI report showed inflation rising 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven by surging energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. This reinforced concerns about persistent inflation, supporting expectations of a Fed rate hike in July.
May 2026 CPI Inflation Report Shows 4.2% Year-Over-Year Increase
No change drops to 74%8%
The May CPI report released on June 10 showed headline inflation at 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April, driven by energy price surges amid Middle East tensions. This higher-than-expected inflation reinforced market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady but remain hawkish on future hikes.
US inflation climbs to 4.2% in May, highest in three years
25 bps increase dips to 4%2%
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% due to an energy price surge, increasing pressure on the Fed to consider tightening policy.
Economists overwhelmingly expect Fed to hold rates steady through 2026
No change rises to 93%3%
A Reuters poll showed that 72 of 102 economists forecast the Fed would keep rates in the current range for the rest of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This consensus supported the market's high probability pricing for no change at the July meeting.
Fed Signals Shift at June Meeting, Markets Price in Possible 2026 Rate Hike
No change dips to 93%2%
With inflation remaining elevated and labor markets strong, the Fed's June meeting signaled a potential end to the easing bias, increasing market expectations for no change in July but possible hikes later in 2026.
Goldman Sachs revises Fed rate cut expectations to 2027 amid strong labor market
No change plunges to 72%21%
Goldman Sachs economists no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market and persistent inflation. This contributed to market sentiment favoring no rate cuts and potential hikes later in the year.
US Adds 172,000 Jobs in May, Surpassing Expectations
No change rises to 95%2%
The strong jobs report indicated a resilient labor market, which supports the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts and bolsters the case for maintaining current rates at the upcoming July meeting.
U.S. May Jobs Report Shows Strong 172,000 Job Gains
25 bps increase surges to 20%17%
The U.S. labor market added 172,000 jobs in May, well above forecasts, signaling a resilient economy. This strong employment data reduced expectations for rate cuts and supported the case for maintaining or increasing rates, impacting market pricing toward a 25 bps increase.
May Nonfarm Payrolls Report Shows Strong Job Growth
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, well above forecasts, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. This strong labor market data reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and supported a hawkish outlook for the Fed.
US Economy Adds 172,000 Jobs in May, Far Exceeding Forecasts
No change jumps to 94%5%
The U.S. labor market showed unexpected resilience as nonfarm payrolls surged by 172,000 in May, far outpacing the consensus estimate of 80,000-85,000. This strong report reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and supported a hawkish outlook ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
Federal Reserve Beige Book Highlights Inflation Pressures from Middle East Conflict
No change drops to 82%11%
The June 3 Beige Book reported moderate to strong price increases across the U.S., driven by rising fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. This report underscored persistent inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for the Fed to maintain or potentially raise rates.
Fed Officials Signal Possible Future Rate Hikes if Inflation Persists
Fed officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, indicated readiness to raise rates if inflation remains elevated due to the Middle East war's impact. This reinforced market caution but did not materially reduce the dominant 'No change' expectation for July.
Former Fed Chair Powell delivers final inflation reality check amid rising prices
No change dips to 93%1%
In his final FOMC meeting remarks, Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation remains elevated and is moving in the wrong direction, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach and supporting market pricing for no rate change in July.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh officially took the oath of office, assuming leadership of the central bank ahead of the critical June and July policy meetings.
Fed Minutes Show Increased Hawkishness with Four Dissenters Favoring Rate Hikes
No change rises to 93%3%
The May release of FOMC minutes revealed four dissenting policymakers advocating for rate hikes due to inflation concerns exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. This indicated a more hawkish Fed stance, but the market still favored no change for the July meeting, keeping the 'No change' price high.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Hawkish Sentiment Amid Inflation Concerns
No change rises to 93%3%
Minutes from the May meeting showed increased concern among Fed officials about inflation risks fueled by geopolitical tensions, with many participants open to the possibility of future rate hikes. This tempered expectations for rate cuts and reinforced the likelihood of no change or potential increases in July.
Fed Minutes Show Officials See Rate Hike Ahead if Inflation Stays Elevated
Minutes from the April meeting revealed that many Fed officials favored removing easing bias language and indicated potential rate hikes if inflation remains high, reinforcing market expectations for no cuts and possible future increases.
Market Analysts Expect No Rate Change in July After April Fed Meeting
No change rises to 92%3%
Following the April meeting, analysts and market participants widely anticipated the Fed would hold rates steady in July, reflecting the Fed's cautious approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks, which pushed the 'No change' outcome price to above 90%.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Hawkish Sentiment Ahead of July Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 6%3%
The May release of FOMC minutes showed increased concern among policymakers about inflation risks, with four dissenters favoring a rate hike. This indicated a more hawkish tilt within the Fed, briefly supporting some market consideration of a 25 bps increase, though the overall market still favored no change.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman Signals Three Rate Cuts Before End of 2026
No change rises to 92%2%
Michelle Bowman indicated expectations for three rate cuts later in 2026, suggesting a dovish tilt despite current steady rates. This statement contributed to market confidence that no immediate rate hikes would occur in July, supporting the 'No change' outcome.
Fed Officials Signal Potential Rate Hike if Inflation Persists, Minutes Show
No change rises to 93%2%
The FOMC minutes released in May indicated a split among policymakers, with some favoring rate hikes if inflation does not subside, reflecting a more hawkish stance under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh. This reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed Officials Signal Longer Pause and Delayed Rate Cuts
No change rises to 93%2%
Fed minutes indicated that officials generally judged the rate pause would extend longer than previously thought, with rate cuts expected later in 2026 or early 2027, reflecting caution amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Yardeni Says Fed Will Need July Rate Hike to Appease Bond Vigilantes
25 bps increase rises to 6%1%
On May 18, analyst Yardeni suggested the Fed might have to raise rates in July to satisfy bond market pressures, introducing some speculation about a possible 25 bps increase. However, this view did not gain significant market traction, as the 'No change' outcome continued to dominate.
Fed Chair comments emphasize data dependency, no immediate hikes expected
No change rises to 94%1%
On May 18, the Fed Chair emphasized that future rate decisions would depend on incoming data, with no immediate hikes expected. This statement solidified the market's strong preference for the 'No change' outcome in July.
Jerome Powell steps down as Fed Chair amid persistent inflation and economic challenges
No change rises to 93%1%
Jerome Powell concluded his tenure as Fed Chair, leaving a legacy marked by persistent inflation above target and cautious monetary policy. His departure added some uncertainty but did not shift market expectations for the July meeting, which remained focused on maintaining current rates.
Senate Banking Committee approves Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair
The Senate Banking Committee approved President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, clearing a major hurdle for his confirmation. This leadership transition contributed to market expectations of continuity in monetary policy.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new Fed Chair, marking a leadership change expected to influence monetary policy direction. Markets anticipated a potential shift away from the easing bias, increasing speculation about possible rate hikes later in 2026, though immediate rate changes were not expected.
Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as new Federal Reserve Chair
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, marking a leadership transition that influenced market expectations for future Fed policy. Warsh's nomination was seen as dovish but with a commitment to Fed independence, affecting market pricing of rate moves.
April CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy costs
The Consumer Price Index for April 2026 showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, fueled by continued high energy prices due to the ongoing Iran war. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed would maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts in the near term.
April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy prices
No change rises to 92%2%
The Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, up from 3.3% in March, with energy prices surging due to the Iran war. This elevated inflation reading kept pressure on the Fed to maintain rates, reducing market expectations for rate cuts or hikes in July.
Inflation data steady, markets price in no rate change
No change rises to 93%1%
Inflation data published on May 12 confirmed steady price levels, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in July, pushing the 'No change' price to new highs.
April CPI inflation rises 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy prices
No change rises to 94%3%
The April CPI report showed inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest in nearly three years, largely due to surging gasoline and energy prices from the ongoing Iran conflict. This heightened inflationary pressure diminished market expectations for rate cuts in July.
April CPI Shows 3.8% Year‑Over‑Year Inflation Spike
No change rises to 93%1%
The CPI for April was released showing a 3.8 % annual rise – the highest since 2023 – driven by soaring energy prices. The jump reinforced concerns that inflation could stay elevated, prompting traders to back a continued hold rather than a cut, lifting “No change” from 92 % to 93 % on May 13.
US CPI Inflation Surges to 3.8% in April, Reaching Highest Level Since 2023
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
Driven by surging energy costs from the Iran war, annual inflation rose to 3.8%, further dampening any remaining expectations for near-term rate cuts.
BofA and Goldman Sachs Push Back Fed Rate-Cut Expectations
No change rises to 89%4%
On May 11, major financial institutions revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady through 2026 due to inflation risks and strong labor market data. This dampened market expectations for rate decreases in July, reducing probabilities for rate cuts.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 115,000 in April, Beating Muted Forecasts
No change rises to 91%1%
The April jobs report showed steady labor market growth despite Middle East conflict pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time.
April jobs report shows 115,000 payroll increase, reinforcing Fed's hold stance
No change rises to 91%2%
The April 2026 employment report revealed stronger-than-expected job gains of 115,000, supporting the Fed's decision to maintain rates as labor market conditions remained stable. This data reduced market expectations for rate cuts in the near term.
April 2026 jobs report shows stronger-than-expected job gains, supporting Fed rate hold
No change rises to 90%2%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 115,000 jobs in April 2026, exceeding expectations and indicating labor market stability. This reinforced the view that the Fed would maintain current rates, further boosting the 'No change' outcome probability.
FOMC maintains rates steady, signals delayed rate cuts
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting market expectations for little change in 2026 and pushing anticipated rate cuts later in the year. This contributed to sustained market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and diminished probabilities for rate decreases.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Dissent at April Meeting
No change rises to 86%2%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% despite internal divisions and persistent inflation concerns. Powell also confirmed he would remain on the Board of Governors, providing some leadership continuity and reinforcing the no-change outlook.
Fed Holds Rates Steady in April, Powell Delivers Farewell as Chair
No change jumps to 93%5%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% during Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. The decision reflected ongoing inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, reinforcing market confidence in the 'No change' outcome, which rose to over 90%.
Fed Unanimously Maintains Interest Rate on Reserve Balances
No change jumps to 88%8%
The Board of Governors voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, consistent with the decision to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged, reinforcing the Fed's steady policy stance.
FOMC Statement Highlights Inflation and Employment Outlook
No change jumps to 82%8%
The FOMC statement emphasized solid economic activity, low job gains, and elevated inflation, reinforcing a cautious approach to rate changes. The statement's tone supported the market's growing belief in a steady rate policy through July.
Fed Maintains Rates at 3.50%-3.75% with Notable Dissent
No change jumps to 88%8%
At the April FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady but faced four dissenting votes, the most since 1992, reflecting increased debate about future hikes amid inflation concerns. The statement emphasized data dependency and uncertainty, supporting the market's growing conviction of no change in July.
Fed Maintains Interest Rates at April 2026 Meeting Despite Dissent
No change jumps to 85%5%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with some dissenting members preferring a quarter-point cut. The statement emphasized monitoring risks from inflation and geopolitical developments, supporting market expectations of no change in the near term.
Fed holds rates steady amid highest dissent since 1992 in Powell's final meeting
No change rises to 93%4%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-4 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenters reflecting uncertainty about inflation and future rate moves amid the Iran war and elevated energy prices. Powell announced he would remain on the Board of Governors until the renovation investigation concludes, signaling continuity amid leadership transition.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks
No change rises to 85%4%
In Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as chair, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with an 8-4 split vote, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation, rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, and a cautious labor market. The dissent and cautious language surprised markets but reinforced no immediate rate hikes or cuts.
Powell Says Inflation Remains Elevated, Fed Will Monitor Energy Risks
No change rises to 85%1%
Powell’s press conference after the April hold emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that the Fed will “continue to monitor” energy‑price risks. The dovish tone used to reassure markets kept the probability of any change near zero, contributing to the steady rise of the “No change” bracket.
FOMC Statement Confirms No Change in Federal Funds Rate
No change rises to 89%3%
The official FOMC statement reiterated the decision to keep the target range unchanged and maintained the interest rate on reserve balances, solidifying market confidence in a steady policy through July.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook
At its April meeting, the FOMC again held rates steady, emphasizing the need to monitor inflation and labor market data closely. The statement reflected a balanced view, with some dissenters favoring a rate cut, but the majority supporting the hold, which kept market expectations for no change in July high.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with divided vote
No change rises to 84%4%
In what was likely Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting, the FOMC voted to hold rates steady amid persistent inflation and a softening labor market. The decision was split, with some dissenters preferring a rate cut, but the committee maintained the current range, reinforcing market pricing for no change through 2026.
Jerome Powell announces plan to remain on Fed Board after chair term ends
At the April meeting, Powell stated he would stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends in May, providing continuity amid economic uncertainty. This announcement reassured markets about policy stability, supporting the no change outcome.
Fed minutes reveal cautious outlook, reinforcing no change bets
No change rises to 85%1%
The release of the Federal Reserve minutes on April 25 highlighted a cautious economic outlook and reluctance to change rates soon, which bolstered market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and further diminished chances of rate hikes or cuts.
DOJ Drops Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 85%1%
The DOJ announced it was dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s building‑renovation probe. The closure removed a political obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would remain on a hold‑policy path, nudging “No change” from 84 % to 85 % the next day.
DOJ drops criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change jumps to 89%5%
The Department of Justice closed its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to the Federal Reserve's renovation project, removing a major obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation and reducing political uncertainty around Fed leadership and policy.
Kevin Warsh testifies at Senate Banking Committee for Fed Chair confirmation
No change rises to 84%2%
Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing. His nomination amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty influenced market expectations about future Fed policy direction.
March CPI inflation spikes to 3.3% driven by Iran war energy price surge
No change jumps to 82%5%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year-over-year increase in CPI for March 2026, up from 2.4% in February, largely due to soaring gasoline and energy prices caused by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This heightened inflation concerns and complicated the Fed's rate outlook.
March 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.3% amid Iran war energy price surge
No change jumps to 81%6%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year-over-year increase in CPI inflation for March 2026, up from 2.4% in February, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran conflict. This heightened inflation reinforced market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady, supporting the 'No change' outcome.
March CPI inflation rises 3.3% driven by energy price surge amid Iran war
No change rises to 81%3%
The March CPI report showed a 3.3% annual inflation increase, pushed by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran conflict. This reinforced the Fed's cautious stance on rate changes, supporting market expectations of no rate hike in April.
Mixed labor market data tempers rate cut expectations
No change dips to 80%3%
Labor market data released on April 9 showed mixed signals, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut and supporting the 'No change' outcome. This caused a slight dip in the 'No change' price but maintained its overall upward trend.
March FOMC Minutes Reveal Deep Divide Over Geopolitical Inflation Risks
No change dips to 80%3%
The release of the March meeting minutes showed policymakers split on whether the conflict in Iran would entrench inflation or damage employment, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.
Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Openness to Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Concerns
No change rises to 74%2%
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed an increasing number of policymakers considering future rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, especially due to inflationary impacts from the Middle East conflict. This hawkish tone caused some market uncertainty but did not significantly shift the dominant 'No change' expectation.
Fed officials signal patience amid mixed economic signals
No change jumps to 82%8%
Statements from Federal Reserve officials on April 2 emphasized a patient approach to monetary policy, which supported the market's growing conviction that the Fed would hold rates steady in July, causing a rise in the 'No change' price and a decline in rate hike probabilities.
Fed Chair Powell says inflation expectations remain grounded despite rising energy prices
No change dips to 76%1%
Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations are stable despite recent energy price increases, indicating the Fed does not need to raise rates immediately. This reassured markets that the Fed would likely hold rates steady in upcoming meetings.
Fed Chair Powell Says Central Bank Can 'Wait and See' on War's Inflation Impact
No change jumps to 80%6%
Speaking at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach, noting that the central bank can wait to see how the war in Iran affects inflation before adjusting rates.
Fed Chair Powell signals wait-and-see approach on rate hikes amid Iran war inflation
No change jumps to 77%9%
At a Harvard University speech, Powell stated the Fed would monitor the inflation impact of the Iran war and energy price shocks before adjusting rates, emphasizing the lagged effect of monetary policy and suggesting no immediate hikes. This reassured markets that the Fed would likely hold rates steady in the near term despite inflation risks.
Fed Chair Powell signals no immediate rate hikes despite rising energy prices
No change jumps to 77%9%
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain grounded despite rising energy prices due to the Iran war, indicating the Fed does not need to raise interest rates immediately. This reassured markets and supported expectations of no rate increase in the near term, causing a rise in the 'No change' outcome price.
Market Pricing Shifts Toward No Change After March FOMC
No change jumps to 77%9%
Following the March FOMC meeting, market-implied probabilities for no change in July increased significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance and balanced approach amid geopolitical risks and inflation uncertainty.
Economic data signals steady inflation and growth, reducing rate hike expectations
No change jumps to 77%9%
On March 20, 2026, economic reports indicated inflation and growth were steady, leading markets to reduce the probability of a 25 bps increase and increase confidence in no change for the July Fed meeting. This shifted market pricing significantly towards the 'No change' outcome.
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