The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader confidence that the disgraced Hollywood producer will face no additional prison time beyond time already served. With the 74-year-old’s 23-year New York sentence overturned on appeal and his separate 16-year California term under active challenge, markets now price an 82.6% chance of no further incarceration. Weinstein’s deteriorating health at Rikers Island, combined with his age and repeated prosecutorial setbacks in the landmark #MeToo case, have fueled expectations of possible compassionate release or concurrent sentencing. Upcoming California appellate rulings and any plea negotiations remain the key swing factors that could still alter these implied probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트하비 와인스타인 교도소 시간?
하비 와인스타인 교도소 시간?
징역형 없음 82.6%
5년 미만 7.1%
5-10년 4.0%
10~20년 3.5%
$987,599 거래량
$987,599 거래량
2025.12.31
징역형 없음
83%
5년 미만
7%
5-10년
4%
10~20년
3%
20-30년
3%
30년 이상
2%
징역형 없음 82.6%
5년 미만 7.1%
5-10년 4.0%
10~20년 3.5%
$987,599 거래량
$987,599 거래량
2025.12.31
징역형 없음
$347,074 거래량
83%
5년 미만
$131,234 거래량
7%
5-10년
$79,622 거래량
4%
10~20년
$157,758 거래량
3%
20-30년
$199,445 거래량
3%
30년 이상
$72,465 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader confidence that the disgraced Hollywood producer will face no additional prison time beyond time already served. With the 74-year-old’s 23-year New York sentence overturned on appeal and his separate 16-year California term under active challenge, markets now price an 82.6% chance of no further incarceration. Weinstein’s deteriorating health at Rikers Island, combined with his age and repeated prosecutorial setbacks in the landmark #MeToo case, have fueled expectations of possible compassionate release or concurrent sentencing. Upcoming California appellate rulings and any plea negotiations remain the key swing factors that could still alter these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
거래량
$987,599종료일
2025.12.31마켓 개설일
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader confidence that the disgraced Hollywood producer will face no additional prison time beyond time already served. With the 74-year-old’s 23-year New York sentence overturned on appeal and his separate 16-year California term under active challenge, markets now price an 82.6% chance of no further incarceration. Weinstein’s deteriorating health at Rikers Island, combined with his age and repeated prosecutorial setbacks in the landmark #MeToo case, have fueled expectations of possible compassionate release or concurrent sentencing. Upcoming California appellate rulings and any plea negotiations remain the key swing factors that could still alter these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$987,599종료일
2025.12.31마켓 개설일
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial has sharply boosted trader confidence that the disgraced Hollywood producer will face no additional prison time beyond time already served. With the 74-year-old’s 23-year New York sentence overturned on appeal and his separate 16-year California term under active challenge, markets now price an 82.6% chance of no further incarceration. Weinstein’s deteriorating health at Rikers Island, combined with his age and repeated prosecutorial setbacks in the landmark #MeToo case, have fueled expectations of possible compassionate release or concurrent sentencing. Upcoming California appellate rulings and any plea negotiations remain the key swing factors that could still alter these implied probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문