The U.S. labor market remains resilient with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains and stable wage growth around 3.5 percent year-over-year. Elevated inflation, driven in part by energy price pressures, has prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, limiting monetary easing that could otherwise accelerate hiring. Consensus forecasts from major banks and the Congressional Budget Office project the rate rising gradually to 4.5–4.8 percent by year-end 2026 amid slower job creation and a cooling participation rate, though recession risks stay low absent sharper deterioration in consumer spending or business investment. Key near-term catalysts include the June employment report and upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh emerging labor-market slack in shaping the peak unemployment level for the year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$388,210 거래량
2026.01.10
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
5%
$388,210 거래량
5.0%
$102,090 거래량
28%
5.5%
$186,651 거래량
14%
6.0%
$52,080 거래량
13%
7.0%
$21,510 거래량
10%
10.0%
$25,880 거래량
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market remains resilient with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains and stable wage growth around 3.5 percent year-over-year. Elevated inflation, driven in part by energy price pressures, has prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, limiting monetary easing that could otherwise accelerate hiring. Consensus forecasts from major banks and the Congressional Budget Office project the rate rising gradually to 4.5–4.8 percent by year-end 2026 amid slower job creation and a cooling participation rate, though recession risks stay low absent sharper deterioration in consumer spending or business investment. Key near-term catalysts include the June employment report and upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh emerging labor-market slack in shaping the peak unemployment level for the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
거래량
$388,210종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. labor market remains resilient with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains and stable wage growth around 3.5 percent year-over-year. Elevated inflation, driven in part by energy price pressures, has prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, limiting monetary easing that could otherwise accelerate hiring. Consensus forecasts from major banks and the Congressional Budget Office project the rate rising gradually to 4.5–4.8 percent by year-end 2026 amid slower job creation and a cooling participation rate, though recession risks stay low absent sharper deterioration in consumer spending or business investment. Key near-term catalysts include the June employment report and upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh emerging labor-market slack in shaping the peak unemployment level for the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$388,210종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. labor market remains resilient with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026, supported by modest nonfarm payroll gains and stable wage growth around 3.5 percent year-over-year. Elevated inflation, driven in part by energy price pressures, has prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent, limiting monetary easing that could otherwise accelerate hiring. Consensus forecasts from major banks and the Congressional Budget Office project the rate rising gradually to 4.5–4.8 percent by year-end 2026 amid slower job creation and a cooling participation rate, though recession risks stay low absent sharper deterioration in consumer spending or business investment. Key near-term catalysts include the June employment report and upcoming FOMC communications, which will clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh emerging labor-market slack in shaping the peak unemployment level for the year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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