The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$388,693 거래량
2026.01.10
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
5%
$388,693 거래량
5.0%
$102,277 거래량
28%
5.5%
$186,719 거래량
14%
6.0%
$52,180 거래량
13%
7.0%
$21,511 거래량
10%
10.0%
$26,006 거래량
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
거래량
$388,693종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$388,693종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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