The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.43-4.47% as of mid-June 2026, having eased modestly over the past month amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Key drivers include the trajectory of core PCE and CPI inflation, labor market resilience, and market-implied paths for the federal funds rate, currently in the 4.25-4.5% range with anticipated cuts later in 2026. Elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits continues to exert upward pressure on longer-term yields, while growth forecasts and risk sentiment influence demand. Upcoming catalysts encompass FOMC meetings, June inflation releases, and employment data, which will shape the balance between potential further declines toward 4.0% or below and resistance near current levels through 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$218,975 거래량
2026.12.31
3.9%
33%
3.8%
30%
3.7%
27%
3.6%
12%
3.5%
10%
3.0%
10%
2.0%
7%
1.0%
4%
$218,975 거래량
3.9%
$41,485 거래량
33%
3.8%
$40,624 거래량
30%
3.7%
$26,539 거래량
27%
3.6%
$5,117 거래량
12%
3.5%
$32,306 거래량
10%
3.0%
$744 거래량
10%
2.0%
$373 거래량
7%
1.0%
$40,027 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.43-4.47% as of mid-June 2026, having eased modestly over the past month amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Key drivers include the trajectory of core PCE and CPI inflation, labor market resilience, and market-implied paths for the federal funds rate, currently in the 4.25-4.5% range with anticipated cuts later in 2026. Elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits continues to exert upward pressure on longer-term yields, while growth forecasts and risk sentiment influence demand. Upcoming catalysts encompass FOMC meetings, June inflation releases, and employment data, which will shape the balance between potential further declines toward 4.0% or below and resistance near current levels through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
거래량
$218,975종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.43-4.47% as of mid-June 2026, having eased modestly over the past month amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Key drivers include the trajectory of core PCE and CPI inflation, labor market resilience, and market-implied paths for the federal funds rate, currently in the 4.25-4.5% range with anticipated cuts later in 2026. Elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits continues to exert upward pressure on longer-term yields, while growth forecasts and risk sentiment influence demand. Upcoming catalysts encompass FOMC meetings, June inflation releases, and employment data, which will shape the balance between potential further declines toward 4.0% or below and resistance near current levels through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
거래량
$218,975종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 4.43-4.47% as of mid-June 2026, having eased modestly over the past month amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Key drivers include the trajectory of core PCE and CPI inflation, labor market resilience, and market-implied paths for the federal funds rate, currently in the 4.25-4.5% range with anticipated cuts later in 2026. Elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits continues to exert upward pressure on longer-term yields, while growth forecasts and risk sentiment influence demand. Upcoming catalysts encompass FOMC meetings, June inflation releases, and employment data, which will shape the balance between potential further declines toward 4.0% or below and resistance near current levels through 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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