Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.4% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting surging April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs amid sticky PCE at 3.5% in March. The Fed has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings, with March dot plot projections lifting 2026 PCE forecasts to 2.7% despite some anticipated easing. Brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs now delay cuts to 2027 on persistent pressures, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 71.5% for no change. Key catalysts include upcoming PCE releases and the June FOMC.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 (0bp) 71.4%
1회 (25bp) 17%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.3%
$26,217,729 거래량
$26,217,729 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
71%
1회 (25bp)
17%
2회 (50bp)
7%
3회 (75bp)
2%
4회 (100bp)
1%
5회 (125bp)
1%
6회 (150bp)
1%
7회 (175bp)
<1%
8회 (200bp)
<1%
9회 (225bp)
<1%
10회 (250bp)
<1%
11회 (275bp)
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
1%
0 (0bp) 71.4%
1회 (25bp) 17%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.3%
$26,217,729 거래량
$26,217,729 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
$4,084,442 거래량
71%
1회 (25bp)
$1,218,110 거래량
17%
2회 (50bp)
$1,170,611 거래량
7%
3회 (75bp)
$1,069,014 거래량
2%
4회 (100bp)
$1,146,643 거래량
1%
5회 (125bp)
$1,380,088 거래량
1%
6회 (150bp)
$2,436,585 거래량
1%
7회 (175bp)
$1,291,302 거래량
<1%
8회 (200bp)
$1,689,938 거래량
<1%
9회 (225bp)
$2,408,986 거래량
<1%
10회 (250bp)
$3,018,784 거래량
<1%
11회 (275bp)
$3,195,901 거래량
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
$2,107,891 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.4% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting surging April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs amid sticky PCE at 3.5% in March. The Fed has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings, with March dot plot projections lifting 2026 PCE forecasts to 2.7% despite some anticipated easing. Brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs now delay cuts to 2027 on persistent pressures, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 71.5% for no change. Key catalysts include upcoming PCE releases and the June FOMC.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
마켓 개설일: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$26,217,729종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.4% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting surging April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs amid sticky PCE at 3.5% in March. The Fed has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings, with March dot plot projections lifting 2026 PCE forecasts to 2.7% despite some anticipated easing. Brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs now delay cuts to 2027 on persistent pressures, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 71.5% for no change. Key catalysts include upcoming PCE releases and the June FOMC.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$26,217,729종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 71.4% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts (0 basis points) in 2026, reflecting surging April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs amid sticky PCE at 3.5% in March. The Fed has held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings, with March dot plot projections lifting 2026 PCE forecasts to 2.7% despite some anticipated easing. Brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs now delay cuts to 2027 on persistent pressures, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 71.5% for no change. Key catalysts include upcoming PCE releases and the June FOMC.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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