Trader consensus heavily favors no federal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by June 30, driven by the Department of Justice's April 24 announcement dropping its criminal probe into alleged Fed headquarters renovation overruns and congressional testimony. Prosecutors, led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, found insufficient evidence after months of subpoenas, clearing Powell without indictment and paving the way for other Fed nominations. With six weeks remaining and no new investigations reported, structural barriers like the Fed's independence and lack of fresh catalysts reinforce this near-certain positioning. Only an abrupt reopening by DOJ or unforeseen evidence could shift odds, though historical patterns show rare late indictments for sitting officials.