Amid a fragile ceasefire following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for any entity entering Iranian territory by June 30, driven by the absence of ground incursions despite ongoing naval blockades by CENTCOM redirecting 67 commercial ships and heightened rhetoric. Iranian leaders dictated end-of-war terms on May 11, prompting President Trump to declare negotiations on "life support" two days later, while Tehran prepares for potential renewal amid intact military assets. No boots-on-the-ground operations have materialized, with focus remaining on airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and diplomatic standoffs; escalation risks persist ahead of unresolved talks, though invasion barriers like terrain and casualties deter entry.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$387,428 거래량
2026.06.30
어떤 미국 하원의원
5%
미국 상원의원
3%
제러드 쿠슈너
2%
마르코 루비오
2%
피트 헥셋
2%
JD 밴스
1%
벤야민 네타냐후
1%
도널드 트럼프
<1%
$387,428 거래량
어떤 미국 하원의원
$86,764 거래량
5%
미국 상원의원
$29,990 거래량
3%
제러드 쿠슈너
$15,604 거래량
2%
마르코 루비오
$21,470 거래량
2%
피트 헥셋
$92,649 거래량
2%
JD 밴스
$30,931 거래량
1%
벤야민 네타냐후
$42,282 거래량
1%
도널드 트럼프
$67,738 거래량
<1%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid a fragile ceasefire following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for any entity entering Iranian territory by June 30, driven by the absence of ground incursions despite ongoing naval blockades by CENTCOM redirecting 67 commercial ships and heightened rhetoric. Iranian leaders dictated end-of-war terms on May 11, prompting President Trump to declare negotiations on "life support" two days later, while Tehran prepares for potential renewal amid intact military assets. No boots-on-the-ground operations have materialized, with focus remaining on airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and diplomatic standoffs; escalation risks persist ahead of unresolved talks, though invasion barriers like terrain and casualties deter entry.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
거래량
$387,428종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid a fragile ceasefire following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for any entity entering Iranian territory by June 30, driven by the absence of ground incursions despite ongoing naval blockades by CENTCOM redirecting 67 commercial ships and heightened rhetoric. Iranian leaders dictated end-of-war terms on May 11, prompting President Trump to declare negotiations on "life support" two days later, while Tehran prepares for potential renewal amid intact military assets. No boots-on-the-ground operations have materialized, with focus remaining on airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and diplomatic standoffs; escalation risks persist ahead of unresolved talks, though invasion barriers like terrain and casualties deter entry.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$387,428종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile ceasefire following the February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for any entity entering Iranian territory by June 30, driven by the absence of ground incursions despite ongoing naval blockades by CENTCOM redirecting 67 commercial ships and heightened rhetoric. Iranian leaders dictated end-of-war terms on May 11, prompting President Trump to declare negotiations on "life support" two days later, while Tehran prepares for potential renewal amid intact military assets. No boots-on-the-ground operations have materialized, with focus remaining on airstrikes, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and diplomatic standoffs; escalation risks persist ahead of unresolved talks, though invasion barriers like terrain and casualties deter entry.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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