US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
$34,119 거래량
2026.06.30
6월 30일
4%
7월 31일
13%
12월 31일
26%
$34,119 거래량
6월 30일
$15,103 거래량
4%
7월 31일
$14,866 거래량
13%
12월 31일
$4,280 거래량
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
마켓 개설일: Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
거래량
$34,119종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
거래량
$34,119종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jun 22, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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