The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift succession of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026. Recent IRGC statements on May 11 proposing preconditions for negotiations, such as recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to sanctions, illustrate the regime’s ability to dictate terms while maintaining security force loyalty and quelling earlier protests through arrests and rallies. Ongoing economic pressures from the US naval blockade and prior airstrikes on nuclear and military sites have not produced defections or widespread unrest in the past month, with Russia providing limited rebuilding support. These factors underpin the 83.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before 2027, though escalation or internal fractures could still alter outcomes ahead of any diplomatic timeline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$17,822,306 거래량
$17,822,306 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$17,822,306 거래량
$17,822,306 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift succession of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026. Recent IRGC statements on May 11 proposing preconditions for negotiations, such as recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to sanctions, illustrate the regime’s ability to dictate terms while maintaining security force loyalty and quelling earlier protests through arrests and rallies. Ongoing economic pressures from the US naval blockade and prior airstrikes on nuclear and military sites have not produced defections or widespread unrest in the past month, with Russia providing limited rebuilding support. These factors underpin the 83.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before 2027, though escalation or internal fractures could still alter outcomes ahead of any diplomatic timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
거래량
$17,822,306종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift succession of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026. Recent IRGC statements on May 11 proposing preconditions for negotiations, such as recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to sanctions, illustrate the regime’s ability to dictate terms while maintaining security force loyalty and quelling earlier protests through arrests and rallies. Ongoing economic pressures from the US naval blockade and prior airstrikes on nuclear and military sites have not produced defections or widespread unrest in the past month, with Russia providing limited rebuilding support. These factors underpin the 83.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before 2027, though escalation or internal fractures could still alter outcomes ahead of any diplomatic timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$17,822,306종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift succession of his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will remain in power through 2026. Recent IRGC statements on May 11 proposing preconditions for negotiations, such as recognition of control over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to sanctions, illustrate the regime’s ability to dictate terms while maintaining security force loyalty and quelling earlier protests through arrests and rallies. Ongoing economic pressures from the US naval blockade and prior airstrikes on nuclear and military sites have not produced defections or widespread unrest in the past month, with Russia providing limited rebuilding support. These factors underpin the 83.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall before 2027, though escalation or internal fractures could still alter outcomes ahead of any diplomatic timeline.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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