Kazakhstan's formal accession to the Abraham Accords on November 6, 2025—the first expansion since Morocco and Sudan in 2020—has not sparked further momentum, with traders pricing a 56% implied probability against another new country joining before 2027. This consensus reflects stalled diplomatic progress amid ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, Iran proxy escalations, and Palestinian statehood demands blocking key prospects like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon. Despite Trump administration signals of interest from Azerbaijan and defense-tech corridors with Gulf states, no official announcements or binding agreements have emerged in 2026. Regional realignments persist through bilateral pacts, but domestic politics in holdout nations and geopolitical risks temper expectations for timely normalization.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$112,997 거래량
$112,997 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$112,997 거래량
$112,997 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Kazakhstan's formal accession to the Abraham Accords on November 6, 2025—the first expansion since Morocco and Sudan in 2020—has not sparked further momentum, with traders pricing a 56% implied probability against another new country joining before 2027. This consensus reflects stalled diplomatic progress amid ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, Iran proxy escalations, and Palestinian statehood demands blocking key prospects like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon. Despite Trump administration signals of interest from Azerbaijan and defense-tech corridors with Gulf states, no official announcements or binding agreements have emerged in 2026. Regional realignments persist through bilateral pacts, but domestic politics in holdout nations and geopolitical risks temper expectations for timely normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
거래량
$112,997종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Kazakhstan's formal accession to the Abraham Accords on November 6, 2025—the first expansion since Morocco and Sudan in 2020—has not sparked further momentum, with traders pricing a 56% implied probability against another new country joining before 2027. This consensus reflects stalled diplomatic progress amid ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, Iran proxy escalations, and Palestinian statehood demands blocking key prospects like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon. Despite Trump administration signals of interest from Azerbaijan and defense-tech corridors with Gulf states, no official announcements or binding agreements have emerged in 2026. Regional realignments persist through bilateral pacts, but domestic politics in holdout nations and geopolitical risks temper expectations for timely normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$112,997종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kazakhstan's formal accession to the Abraham Accords on November 6, 2025—the first expansion since Morocco and Sudan in 2020—has not sparked further momentum, with traders pricing a 56% implied probability against another new country joining before 2027. This consensus reflects stalled diplomatic progress amid ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, Iran proxy escalations, and Palestinian statehood demands blocking key prospects like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Lebanon. Despite Trump administration signals of interest from Azerbaijan and defense-tech corridors with Gulf states, no official announcements or binding agreements have emerged in 2026. Regional realignments persist through bilateral pacts, but domestic politics in holdout nations and geopolitical risks temper expectations for timely normalization.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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