Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
$52,113 거래량
2026.06.26
6월 26일
3%
6월 27일
4%
6월 28일
5%
6월 29일
5%
6월 30일
5%
7월 1일
4%
7월 2일
4%
7월 3일
4%
7월 4일
3%
7월 5일
7%
7월 6일
5%
7월 7일
6%
7월 8일
28%
7월 9일
6%
$52,113 거래량
6월 26일
$28,962 거래량
3%
6월 27일
$9,206 거래량
4%
6월 28일
$2,647 거래량
5%
6월 29일
$3,594 거래량
5%
6월 30일
$2,881 거래량
5%
7월 1일
$563 거래량
4%
7월 2일
$182 거래량
4%
7월 3일
$158 거래량
4%
7월 4일
$305 거래량
3%
7월 5일
$878 거래량
7%
7월 6일
$214 거래량
5%
7월 7일
$2,490 거래량
6%
7월 8일
$10 거래량
28%
7월 9일
$22 거래량
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
마켓 개설일: Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
거래량
$52,113종료일
2026.07.09마켓 개설일
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
거래량
$52,113종료일
2026.07.09마켓 개설일
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict continue to shape trader focus on shipping incidents. On June 25, Iranian forces struck a cargo vessel transiting the strait with a projectile, though reports indicated no damage or injuries. This follows multiple prior maritime events since March, including drone threats countered by U.S. forces and Iranian warnings against foreign interference in transit rules. Iran has also signaled plans for transit fees and environmental charges on vessels, with IRGC Navy activity and tanker movements monitored closely. These developments, alongside U.S. responses and broader regional military posture, drive assessments of whether further successful targeting occurs within relevant resolution windows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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