European leaders from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomatic engagement following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in late February 2026. Joint statements have condemned Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies while committing only to proportionate actions protecting navigation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, including deployments of naval assets like the UK destroyer HMS Dragon and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle. Failed US-Iran talks in April, combined with economic risks from oil disruptions and domestic opposition to deeper involvement, have reinforced this limited posture. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian strike on European forces or territory could still prompt reassessment before the June 30 resolution date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,360,429 거래량
$1,360,429 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$1,360,429 거래량
$1,360,429 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomatic engagement following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in late February 2026. Joint statements have condemned Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies while committing only to proportionate actions protecting navigation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, including deployments of naval assets like the UK destroyer HMS Dragon and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle. Failed US-Iran talks in April, combined with economic risks from oil disruptions and domestic opposition to deeper involvement, have reinforced this limited posture. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian strike on European forces or territory could still prompt reassessment before the June 30 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
거래량
$1,360,429종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomatic engagement following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in late February 2026. Joint statements have condemned Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies while committing only to proportionate actions protecting navigation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, including deployments of naval assets like the UK destroyer HMS Dragon and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle. Failed US-Iran talks in April, combined with economic risks from oil disruptions and domestic opposition to deeper involvement, have reinforced this limited posture. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian strike on European forces or territory could still prompt reassessment before the June 30 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,360,429종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders from France, the United Kingdom, and Germany have consistently prioritized defensive measures and diplomatic engagement following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in late February 2026. Joint statements have condemned Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on regional allies while committing only to proportionate actions protecting navigation routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, including deployments of naval assets like the UK destroyer HMS Dragon and the French carrier Charles de Gaulle. Failed US-Iran talks in April, combined with economic risks from oil disruptions and domestic opposition to deeper involvement, have reinforced this limited posture. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers, though a major Iranian strike on European forces or territory could still prompt reassessment before the June 30 resolution date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문