Ongoing US sanctions combined with a naval blockade restricting access to the Strait of Hormuz have sharply curtailed Iran’s oil exports and broader trade flows, intensifying pressure on the rial. Persistent domestic inflation above 50 percent, widening fiscal deficits, and limited access to foreign currency reserves have accelerated depreciation, pushing open-market rates to approximately 1.8 million rials per dollar in mid-May. With May 31 only weeks away, trader consensus reflected in prediction markets assigns very high implied probability to further weakening by the deadline, driven by the absence of any immediate diplomatic breakthrough or sanctions relief. No scheduled policy shifts or export recoveries are expected to reverse the trend before month-end.