Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and mutual naval blockades have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at minimal levels since late February 2026. Recent naval skirmishes in early May, combined with Iranian restrictions and U.S. enforcement actions including the brief Project Freedom escort initiative announced May 4 and paused days later, have sustained single-digit daily crossings. Shipping data through mid-May show traffic at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict norms, with hundreds of vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf amid risks of attacks and route uncertainty. Traders therefore assign an 86.5 percent probability to an average of just 0-10 ships by the end of May, reflecting these persistent chokepoint constraints rather than any near-term de-escalation.