The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by May 31. Despite targeted strikes on military sites, missile facilities, and personnel, along with a naval blockade and ongoing negotiations, core structures such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have reconstituted capabilities and maintained internal control amid protests and economic pressure. Recent statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before talks further signal regime stability over the short timeline. While a sudden internal uprising or escalated military action could theoretically shift conditions, the absence of large-scale defections or governance breakdown in the past two weeks leaves such outcomes improbable before month-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$20,407,080 거래량
$20,407,080 거래량
2026.05.31
예
$20,407,080 거래량
$20,407,080 거래량
2026.05.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by May 31. Despite targeted strikes on military sites, missile facilities, and personnel, along with a naval blockade and ongoing negotiations, core structures such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have reconstituted capabilities and maintained internal control amid protests and economic pressure. Recent statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before talks further signal regime stability over the short timeline. While a sudden internal uprising or escalated military action could theoretically shift conditions, the absence of large-scale defections or governance breakdown in the past two weeks leaves such outcomes improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
거래량
$20,407,080종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by May 31. Despite targeted strikes on military sites, missile facilities, and personnel, along with a naval blockade and ongoing negotiations, core structures such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have reconstituted capabilities and maintained internal control amid protests and economic pressure. Recent statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before talks further signal regime stability over the short timeline. While a sudden internal uprising or escalated military action could theoretically shift conditions, the absence of large-scale defections or governance breakdown in the past two weeks leaves such outcomes improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$20,407,080종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity after the 2026 US-Israeli military campaign, including leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination and the installation of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by May 31. Despite targeted strikes on military sites, missile facilities, and personnel, along with a naval blockade and ongoing negotiations, core structures such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have reconstituted capabilities and maintained internal control amid protests and economic pressure. Recent statements from Iranian officials demanding security guarantees before talks further signal regime stability over the short timeline. While a sudden internal uprising or escalated military action could theoretically shift conditions, the absence of large-scale defections or governance breakdown in the past two weeks leaves such outcomes improbable before month-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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