Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.9% implied probability for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, during initial US-Israeli strikes sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March, maintaining regime continuity despite health rumors and low visibility. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting with the new leader underscored institutional stability. Reza Pahlavi, still exiled, called January protests that were swiftly crushed via massacres and internet blackouts, with no successful uprising or his return. A fragile April ceasefire persists without regime collapse, though negotiations falter as Iran dictates terms.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,169,531 거래량
$1,169,531 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$1,169,531 거래량
$1,169,531 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.9% implied probability for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, during initial US-Israeli strikes sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March, maintaining regime continuity despite health rumors and low visibility. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting with the new leader underscored institutional stability. Reza Pahlavi, still exiled, called January protests that were swiftly crushed via massacres and internet blackouts, with no successful uprising or his return. A fragile April ceasefire persists without regime collapse, though negotiations falter as Iran dictates terms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
거래량
$1,169,531종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.9% implied probability for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, during initial US-Israeli strikes sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March, maintaining regime continuity despite health rumors and low visibility. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting with the new leader underscored institutional stability. Reza Pahlavi, still exiled, called January protests that were swiftly crushed via massacres and internet blackouts, with no successful uprising or his return. A fragile April ceasefire persists without regime collapse, though negotiations falter as Iran dictates terms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,169,531종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.9% implied probability for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's resilience amid severe pressures. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death on February 28, 2026, during initial US-Israeli strikes sparking the ongoing 2026 Iran war, his son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March, maintaining regime continuity despite health rumors and low visibility. President Masoud Pezeshkian's May 7 meeting with the new leader underscored institutional stability. Reza Pahlavi, still exiled, called January protests that were swiftly crushed via massacres and internet blackouts, with no successful uprising or his return. A fragile April ceasefire persists without regime collapse, though negotiations falter as Iran dictates terms.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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