Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding have introduced a 60-day period of charge-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz while demining occurs, following earlier 2026 conflict that included Iranian closure declarations and shipping attacks. Iran’s foreign ministry has stated it will not impose transit tolls but will levy fees for services such as navigation and environmental protection once the grace period ends around mid-August, consistent with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority established in May. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have rejected any tolls or fees as setting a dangerous precedent under international maritime law. Key variables for traders include whether the deal holds, enforcement of Iranian permitting requirements, and potential escalations or additional diplomatic steps before year-end deadlines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
2026.07.15
7월 15일
7%
8월 31일
30%
$8,211 거래량
7월 15일
$6,683 거래량
7%
8월 31일
$1,528 거래량
30%
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding have introduced a 60-day period of charge-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz while demining occurs, following earlier 2026 conflict that included Iranian closure declarations and shipping attacks. Iran’s foreign ministry has stated it will not impose transit tolls but will levy fees for services such as navigation and environmental protection once the grace period ends around mid-August, consistent with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority established in May. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have rejected any tolls or fees as setting a dangerous precedent under international maritime law. Key variables for traders include whether the deal holds, enforcement of Iranian permitting requirements, and potential escalations or additional diplomatic steps before year-end deadlines.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jun 25, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
거래량
$8,211종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Jun 25, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding have introduced a 60-day period of charge-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz while demining occurs, following earlier 2026 conflict that included Iranian closure declarations and shipping attacks. Iran’s foreign ministry has stated it will not impose transit tolls but will levy fees for services such as navigation and environmental protection once the grace period ends around mid-August, consistent with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority established in May. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have rejected any tolls or fees as setting a dangerous precedent under international maritime law. Key variables for traders include whether the deal holds, enforcement of Iranian permitting requirements, and potential escalations or additional diplomatic steps before year-end deadlines.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:
1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.
2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.
Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$8,211종료일
2026.08.31마켓 개설일
Jun 25, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations and a June 2026 memorandum of understanding have introduced a 60-day period of charge-free transit through the Strait of Hormuz while demining occurs, following earlier 2026 conflict that included Iranian closure declarations and shipping attacks. Iran’s foreign ministry has stated it will not impose transit tolls but will levy fees for services such as navigation and environmental protection once the grace period ends around mid-August, consistent with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority established in May. U.S. officials, including President Trump, have rejected any tolls or fees as setting a dangerous precedent under international maritime law. Key variables for traders include whether the deal holds, enforcement of Iranian permitting requirements, and potential escalations or additional diplomatic steps before year-end deadlines.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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