Israel's airspace has remained open to commercial aviation since Ben Gurion Airport fully resumed operations in early April 2026, following temporary closures amid US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February and subsequent Iranian retaliation. A fragile ceasefire, extended in late April, has held despite sporadic low-intensity incidents, including sirens and air defense activations in northern Israel linked to Hezbollah threats. Recent reports of planned military escalation in Lebanon amid troop shortages, coupled with Netanyahu's secret UAE visit advancing defense ties, sustain trader caution. EASA advisories urging caution through May 27 highlight persistent risks from potential missile barrages or proxy escalations, though no major kinetic developments in the past 30 days have prompted shutdowns, aligning with post-conflict reopening precedents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$828,745 거래량
2026.05.31
May 31
30%
6월 30일
41%
$828,745 거래량
May 31
$328,273 거래량
30%
6월 30일
$5,257 거래량
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has remained open to commercial aviation since Ben Gurion Airport fully resumed operations in early April 2026, following temporary closures amid US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February and subsequent Iranian retaliation. A fragile ceasefire, extended in late April, has held despite sporadic low-intensity incidents, including sirens and air defense activations in northern Israel linked to Hezbollah threats. Recent reports of planned military escalation in Lebanon amid troop shortages, coupled with Netanyahu's secret UAE visit advancing defense ties, sustain trader caution. EASA advisories urging caution through May 27 highlight persistent risks from potential missile barrages or proxy escalations, though no major kinetic developments in the past 30 days have prompted shutdowns, aligning with post-conflict reopening precedents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
거래량
$828,745종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has remained open to commercial aviation since Ben Gurion Airport fully resumed operations in early April 2026, following temporary closures amid US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February and subsequent Iranian retaliation. A fragile ceasefire, extended in late April, has held despite sporadic low-intensity incidents, including sirens and air defense activations in northern Israel linked to Hezbollah threats. Recent reports of planned military escalation in Lebanon amid troop shortages, coupled with Netanyahu's secret UAE visit advancing defense ties, sustain trader caution. EASA advisories urging caution through May 27 highlight persistent risks from potential missile barrages or proxy escalations, though no major kinetic developments in the past 30 days have prompted shutdowns, aligning with post-conflict reopening precedents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$828,745종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace has remained open to commercial aviation since Ben Gurion Airport fully resumed operations in early April 2026, following temporary closures amid US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February and subsequent Iranian retaliation. A fragile ceasefire, extended in late April, has held despite sporadic low-intensity incidents, including sirens and air defense activations in northern Israel linked to Hezbollah threats. Recent reports of planned military escalation in Lebanon amid troop shortages, coupled with Netanyahu's secret UAE visit advancing defense ties, sustain trader caution. EASA advisories urging caution through May 27 highlight persistent risks from potential missile barrages or proxy escalations, though no major kinetic developments in the past 30 days have prompted shutdowns, aligning with post-conflict reopening precedents.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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