A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, holds amid the 2026 Iran war but faces collapse after President Trump's May 11 statement calling negotiations "on life support" following Iran's rejection of a US peace proposal demanding a 12-year nuclear enrichment halt and sanctions relief. Recent escalations, including Israeli strikes on Iranian universities two days ago and Tehran's counter-demand for five hardline terms like asset releases and Israeli border withdrawals, underscore deep mistrust with no bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channel. Traders see slim odds for permanent peace absent regime change or multilateral breakthroughs, as focus remains on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and averting renewed airstrikes or blockades before potential Pakistan-hosted talks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$845,324 거래량
2026.05.31
May 31
3%
6월 30일
18%
$845,324 거래량
May 31
$247,069 거래량
3%
6월 30일
$283,652 거래량
18%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, holds amid the 2026 Iran war but faces collapse after President Trump's May 11 statement calling negotiations "on life support" following Iran's rejection of a US peace proposal demanding a 12-year nuclear enrichment halt and sanctions relief. Recent escalations, including Israeli strikes on Iranian universities two days ago and Tehran's counter-demand for five hardline terms like asset releases and Israeli border withdrawals, underscore deep mistrust with no bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channel. Traders see slim odds for permanent peace absent regime change or multilateral breakthroughs, as focus remains on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and averting renewed airstrikes or blockades before potential Pakistan-hosted talks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
거래량
$845,324종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, holds amid the 2026 Iran war but faces collapse after President Trump's May 11 statement calling negotiations "on life support" following Iran's rejection of a US peace proposal demanding a 12-year nuclear enrichment halt and sanctions relief. Recent escalations, including Israeli strikes on Iranian universities two days ago and Tehran's counter-demand for five hardline terms like asset releases and Israeli border withdrawals, underscore deep mistrust with no bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channel. Traders see slim odds for permanent peace absent regime change or multilateral breakthroughs, as focus remains on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and averting renewed airstrikes or blockades before potential Pakistan-hosted talks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$845,324종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-brokered ceasefire, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, holds amid the 2026 Iran war but faces collapse after President Trump's May 11 statement calling negotiations "on life support" following Iran's rejection of a US peace proposal demanding a 12-year nuclear enrichment halt and sanctions relief. Recent escalations, including Israeli strikes on Iranian universities two days ago and Tehran's counter-demand for five hardline terms like asset releases and Israeli border withdrawals, underscore deep mistrust with no bilateral Israel-Iran diplomatic channel. Traders see slim odds for permanent peace absent regime change or multilateral breakthroughs, as focus remains on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and averting renewed airstrikes or blockades before potential Pakistan-hosted talks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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