Skip to main content
icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
정치·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
정치·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.9%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.3%

Polymarket

$356,091 거래량

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.9%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.3%

Polymarket

$356,091 거래량

Starmer - UK PM

$19,690 거래량

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,239 거래량

30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,803 거래량

9%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 거래량

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 거래량

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 거래량

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 거래량

1%

None before 2027

$18,988 거래량

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$18,804 거래량

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 거래량

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 거래량

1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 거래량

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 거래량

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 거래량

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 거래량

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 거래량

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 거래량

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 거래량

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 거래량

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 거래량

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 거래량

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,150 거래량

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 거래량

<1%

Macron - France President

$11,830 거래량

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent internal pressures on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, including Labour's heavy losses in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and explicit leadership challenges from figures like Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, have positioned him as the leading outcome at 45%. Traders view these developments as accelerating the risk of his departure well before 2027. Colombia's Gustavo Petro ranks second at 30% because his single term ends constitutionally in August 2026 following the May presidential vote, creating a fixed timeline for removal absent early removal. Lower-probability leaders such as Díaz-Canel, Takaichi, and Sheinbaum face fewer immediate catalysts, with stable institutional support or longer mandates keeping their implied chances below 10%. Upcoming events like UK parliamentary maneuvers and Colombia's transition process could further shift the consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$356,091
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent internal pressures on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, including Labour's heavy losses in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and explicit leadership challenges from figures like Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, have positioned him as the leading outcome at 45%. Traders view these developments as accelerating the risk of his departure well before 2027. Colombia's Gustavo Petro ranks second at 30% because his single term ends constitutionally in August 2026 following the May presidential vote, creating a fixed timeline for removal absent early removal. Lower-probability leaders such as Díaz-Canel, Takaichi, and Sheinbaum face fewer immediate catalysts, with stable institutional support or longer mandates keeping their implied chances below 10%. Upcoming events like UK parliamentary maneuvers and Colombia's transition process could further shift the consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$356,091
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"은 24개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 44%의 "Starmer - UK PM"이며, 이어서 30%의 "Petro - Colombia President"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 44¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 44%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"은 총 $356.1K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Apr 27, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 24개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"의 현재 유력 후보는 44%의 "Starmer - UK PM"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 44%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 30%의 "Petro - Colombia President"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.