US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$23,356,221 거래량
$23,356,221 거래량
2026.12.31
4% 수익
예
$23,356,221 거래량
$23,356,221 거래량
2026.12.31
4% 수익
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
거래량
$23,356,221종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$23,356,221종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETWe anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, deem a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027 unlikely due to Beijing's recognition of prohibitive economic and military costs, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for "No" by year-end. Recent Xi-Trump summit rhetoric on May 14 escalated warnings over a $14 billion US arms package to Taiwan, yet lacks corresponding PLA mobilization amid routine activities like Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and the Liaoning carrier's April Taiwan Strait transit. Ongoing US-led Balikatan exercises with allies bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait, prioritizing diplomacy and economic stability over adventurism absent major escalation triggers.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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