Traders assign an 89.3% probability that no US ally acquires nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, legislative shifts, or verifiable technical progress among leading candidates such as South Korea and Japan. South Korea’s foreign minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in April 2026 despite domestic polling and North Korean missile activity, while Japan has maintained its three non-nuclear principles amid regional security concerns following the February 2026 expiration of New START. US extended deterrence assurances, the multi-year timeline required for enrichment, reprocessing, and weaponization, and congressional restrictions on potential partners like Saudi Arabia further anchor the consensus, with no scheduled diplomatic or military developments positioned to alter this trajectory before the resolution date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign an 89.3% probability that no US ally acquires nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, legislative shifts, or verifiable technical progress among leading candidates such as South Korea and Japan. South Korea’s foreign minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in April 2026 despite domestic polling and North Korean missile activity, while Japan has maintained its three non-nuclear principles amid regional security concerns following the February 2026 expiration of New START. US extended deterrence assurances, the multi-year timeline required for enrichment, reprocessing, and weaponization, and congressional restrictions on potential partners like Saudi Arabia further anchor the consensus, with no scheduled diplomatic or military developments positioned to alter this trajectory before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
거래량
$6,778종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Traders assign an 89.3% probability that no US ally acquires nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, legislative shifts, or verifiable technical progress among leading candidates such as South Korea and Japan. South Korea’s foreign minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in April 2026 despite domestic polling and North Korean missile activity, while Japan has maintained its three non-nuclear principles amid regional security concerns following the February 2026 expiration of New START. US extended deterrence assurances, the multi-year timeline required for enrichment, reprocessing, and weaponization, and congressional restrictions on potential partners like Saudi Arabia further anchor the consensus, with no scheduled diplomatic or military developments positioned to alter this trajectory before the resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
거래량
$6,778종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89.3% probability that no US ally acquires nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, legislative shifts, or verifiable technical progress among leading candidates such as South Korea and Japan. South Korea’s foreign minister reaffirmed non-proliferation commitments under the NPT in April 2026 despite domestic polling and North Korean missile activity, while Japan has maintained its three non-nuclear principles amid regional security concerns following the February 2026 expiration of New START. US extended deterrence assurances, the multi-year timeline required for enrichment, reprocessing, and weaponization, and congressional restrictions on potential partners like Saudi Arabia further anchor the consensus, with no scheduled diplomatic or military developments positioned to alter this trajectory before the resolution date.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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