Diplomatic momentum under U.S. mediation produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day events and paired with an initial prisoner exchange of 205 individuals each. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated the conflict appears close to ending yet tied any sustained pause to Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied areas before comprehensive talks begin. Ukrainian leadership continues to condition broader agreements on security assurances and non-recognition of territorial changes. With accusations of limited violations during the truce and no new major military or diplomatic breakthroughs reported since mid-May, traders are tracking whether U.S.-facilitated negotiations advance toward a formal ceasefire or stall over core territorial and security disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$513,651 거래량
2026.12.31
5월 31일
3%
6월 30일
12%
10월 31일
37%
12월 31일
48%
$513,651 거래량
5월 31일
$202,237 거래량
3%
6월 30일
$177,491 거래량
12%
10월 31일
$45,413 거래량
37%
12월 31일
$88,711 거래량
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic momentum under U.S. mediation produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day events and paired with an initial prisoner exchange of 205 individuals each. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated the conflict appears close to ending yet tied any sustained pause to Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied areas before comprehensive talks begin. Ukrainian leadership continues to condition broader agreements on security assurances and non-recognition of territorial changes. With accusations of limited violations during the truce and no new major military or diplomatic breakthroughs reported since mid-May, traders are tracking whether U.S.-facilitated negotiations advance toward a formal ceasefire or stall over core territorial and security disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
거래량
$513,651종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic momentum under U.S. mediation produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day events and paired with an initial prisoner exchange of 205 individuals each. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated the conflict appears close to ending yet tied any sustained pause to Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied areas before comprehensive talks begin. Ukrainian leadership continues to condition broader agreements on security assurances and non-recognition of territorial changes. With accusations of limited violations during the truce and no new major military or diplomatic breakthroughs reported since mid-May, traders are tracking whether U.S.-facilitated negotiations advance toward a formal ceasefire or stall over core territorial and security disputes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$513,651종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic momentum under U.S. mediation produced a temporary three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, timed with Russia's Victory Day events and paired with an initial prisoner exchange of 205 individuals each. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated the conflict appears close to ending yet tied any sustained pause to Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied areas before comprehensive talks begin. Ukrainian leadership continues to condition broader agreements on security assurances and non-recognition of territorial changes. With accusations of limited violations during the truce and no new major military or diplomatic breakthroughs reported since mid-May, traders are tracking whether U.S.-facilitated negotiations advance toward a formal ceasefire or stall over core territorial and security disputes.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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