Ukraine’s firm rejection of any formal deferral of NATO membership continues to shape trader expectations, with no binding agreement emerging from stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025. President Zelenskyy reaffirmed in April 2026 that Kyiv will not accept limited or delayed options such as “NATO Light,” insisting instead on full accession once conditions are met, a stance consistent with NATO’s Vilnius framework that removed the Membership Action Plan requirement and reaffirmed an open path to membership. February 2026 Geneva discussions produced no progress on neutrality pledges or timelines, while Ukraine advances EU integration priorities without imposing NATO restrictions. These developments sustain the market’s view that a pre-2027 moratorium remains unlikely absent major shifts in negotiating positions or security guarantees.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$99,726 거래량
$99,726 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$99,726 거래량
$99,726 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s firm rejection of any formal deferral of NATO membership continues to shape trader expectations, with no binding agreement emerging from stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025. President Zelenskyy reaffirmed in April 2026 that Kyiv will not accept limited or delayed options such as “NATO Light,” insisting instead on full accession once conditions are met, a stance consistent with NATO’s Vilnius framework that removed the Membership Action Plan requirement and reaffirmed an open path to membership. February 2026 Geneva discussions produced no progress on neutrality pledges or timelines, while Ukraine advances EU integration priorities without imposing NATO restrictions. These developments sustain the market’s view that a pre-2027 moratorium remains unlikely absent major shifts in negotiating positions or security guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
거래량
$99,726종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s firm rejection of any formal deferral of NATO membership continues to shape trader expectations, with no binding agreement emerging from stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025. President Zelenskyy reaffirmed in April 2026 that Kyiv will not accept limited or delayed options such as “NATO Light,” insisting instead on full accession once conditions are met, a stance consistent with NATO’s Vilnius framework that removed the Membership Action Plan requirement and reaffirmed an open path to membership. February 2026 Geneva discussions produced no progress on neutrality pledges or timelines, while Ukraine advances EU integration priorities without imposing NATO restrictions. These developments sustain the market’s view that a pre-2027 moratorium remains unlikely absent major shifts in negotiating positions or security guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
거래량
$99,726종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s firm rejection of any formal deferral of NATO membership continues to shape trader expectations, with no binding agreement emerging from stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks since late 2025. President Zelenskyy reaffirmed in April 2026 that Kyiv will not accept limited or delayed options such as “NATO Light,” insisting instead on full accession once conditions are met, a stance consistent with NATO’s Vilnius framework that removed the Membership Action Plan requirement and reaffirmed an open path to membership. February 2026 Geneva discussions produced no progress on neutrality pledges or timelines, while Ukraine advances EU integration priorities without imposing NATO restrictions. These developments sustain the market’s view that a pre-2027 moratorium remains unlikely absent major shifts in negotiating positions or security guarantees.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문