Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$665,485 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
2%
2026년 9월 30일
6%
2026년 12월 31일
9%
$665,485 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$39,466 거래량
2%
2026년 9월 30일
$5,584 거래량
6%
2026년 12월 31일
$10,216 거래량
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
거래량
$665,485종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$665,485종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration discussions on potentially resuming nuclear testing, spurred by State Department allegations of Chinese violations and Russia's deratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, have not led to any confirmed preparations or announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration as of mid-May 2026. The U.S. has upheld its testing moratorium since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program—validated annually by weapons labs—to certify warhead reliability without explosive tests. A recent CTBTO warning to the U.S. and others underscored nonproliferation risks, while FY2026 DOE budget emphasizes test readiness infrastructure over active detonations. Traders' low implied probabilities (e.g., 9% for year-end) reflect diplomatic barriers, technical confidence, and absence of escalation triggers, with congressional oversight and NDAA provisions as key upcoming factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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