Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 97.9% implied probability for Putin and Zelenskyy shaking hands by June 30, driven by persistent military escalations amid stalled peace talks. Russia's massive drone barrages on May 13–14—the largest in four years—targeted Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians, killing at least six and wounding others, underscoring active hostilities despite a brief May 9–11 ceasefire. Putin's May 9 Victory Day statement expressed openness to a third-country meeting, but only to finalize pre-agreed terms, a condition unmet as Kremlin spokesman Peskov cited lacking political will from Kyiv. With no scheduled summits, deep territorial disputes, and ongoing offensives, traders see negligible path to such a symbolic diplomatic gesture absent a sudden breakthrough like U.S.-brokered concessions or de-escalation signals.