US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2 since February, with limited damage to underground facilities and no resumption of uranium enrichment per Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony. IAEA reports highlight ongoing safeguards issues but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright's May 13 warning of Iran being "frighteningly close" underscores breakout risks without indicating imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including rising Kalshi odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027, reinforce trader consensus that geopolitical pressures, sanctions, and military deterrence make a nuclear test before year-end highly unlikely absent major escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$191,214 거래량
$191,214 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$191,214 거래량
$191,214 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2 since February, with limited damage to underground facilities and no resumption of uranium enrichment per Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony. IAEA reports highlight ongoing safeguards issues but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright's May 13 warning of Iran being "frighteningly close" underscores breakout risks without indicating imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including rising Kalshi odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027, reinforce trader consensus that geopolitical pressures, sanctions, and military deterrence make a nuclear test before year-end highly unlikely absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
거래량
$191,214종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2 since February, with limited damage to underground facilities and no resumption of uranium enrichment per Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony. IAEA reports highlight ongoing safeguards issues but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright's May 13 warning of Iran being "frighteningly close" underscores breakout risks without indicating imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including rising Kalshi odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027, reinforce trader consensus that geopolitical pressures, sanctions, and military deterrence make a nuclear test before year-end highly unlikely absent major escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$191,214종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes on key sites like Natanz, Isfahan, and Taleghan 2 since February, with limited damage to underground facilities and no resumption of uranium enrichment per Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony. IAEA reports highlight ongoing safeguards issues but no evidence of weaponization or test preparations, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright's May 13 warning of Iran being "frighteningly close" underscores breakout risks without indicating imminent detonation. Diplomatic signals, including rising Kalshi odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027, reinforce trader consensus that geopolitical pressures, sanctions, and military deterrence make a nuclear test before year-end highly unlikely absent major escalation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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