The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through the suppression of widespread protests in late 2025 and early 2026, followed by the regime's hardening after U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning February 28. Security forces remained loyal with no reported defections, enabling a brutal crackdown that quelled unrest without internal fractures. Recent developments, including calls for national unity from senior officials amid ongoing economic strain and negotiations, point to consolidation rather than division within the Revolutionary Guards or leadership. These factors have anchored trader consensus at a 90.5% probability against any coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the entrenched military and institutional controls that have historically prevented rapid internal overthrow.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,125,985 거래량
$1,125,985 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$1,125,985 거래량
$1,125,985 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through the suppression of widespread protests in late 2025 and early 2026, followed by the regime's hardening after U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning February 28. Security forces remained loyal with no reported defections, enabling a brutal crackdown that quelled unrest without internal fractures. Recent developments, including calls for national unity from senior officials amid ongoing economic strain and negotiations, point to consolidation rather than division within the Revolutionary Guards or leadership. These factors have anchored trader consensus at a 90.5% probability against any coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the entrenched military and institutional controls that have historically prevented rapid internal overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
거래량
$1,125,985종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through the suppression of widespread protests in late 2025 and early 2026, followed by the regime's hardening after U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning February 28. Security forces remained loyal with no reported defections, enabling a brutal crackdown that quelled unrest without internal fractures. Recent developments, including calls for national unity from senior officials amid ongoing economic strain and negotiations, point to consolidation rather than division within the Revolutionary Guards or leadership. These factors have anchored trader consensus at a 90.5% probability against any coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the entrenched military and institutional controls that have historically prevented rapid internal overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,125,985종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience through the suppression of widespread protests in late 2025 and early 2026, followed by the regime's hardening after U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning February 28. Security forces remained loyal with no reported defections, enabling a brutal crackdown that quelled unrest without internal fractures. Recent developments, including calls for national unity from senior officials amid ongoing economic strain and negotiations, point to consolidation rather than division within the Revolutionary Guards or leadership. These factors have anchored trader consensus at a 90.5% probability against any coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the entrenched military and institutional controls that have historically prevented rapid internal overthrow.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문