US military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on airstrikes targeting nuclear and missile sites, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and limited strikes on facilities supporting attacks on US vessels, without any ground offensive to establish territorial control. President Trump has rejected recent Iranian ceasefire proposals while signaling continued pressure through these measures and troop deployments, yet Pentagon planning has prioritized special operations and air-naval actions over large-scale ground commitments. Ongoing diplomatic mediation and reluctance to incur the costs of occupation have reinforced trader consensus that the US will not launch an invasion meeting the market's criteria before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$28,550,076 거래량
$28,550,076 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$28,550,076 거래량
$28,550,076 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on airstrikes targeting nuclear and missile sites, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and limited strikes on facilities supporting attacks on US vessels, without any ground offensive to establish territorial control. President Trump has rejected recent Iranian ceasefire proposals while signaling continued pressure through these measures and troop deployments, yet Pentagon planning has prioritized special operations and air-naval actions over large-scale ground commitments. Ongoing diplomatic mediation and reluctance to incur the costs of occupation have reinforced trader consensus that the US will not launch an invasion meeting the market's criteria before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$28,550,076종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on airstrikes targeting nuclear and missile sites, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and limited strikes on facilities supporting attacks on US vessels, without any ground offensive to establish territorial control. President Trump has rejected recent Iranian ceasefire proposals while signaling continued pressure through these measures and troop deployments, yet Pentagon planning has prioritized special operations and air-naval actions over large-scale ground commitments. Ongoing diplomatic mediation and reluctance to incur the costs of occupation have reinforced trader consensus that the US will not launch an invasion meeting the market's criteria before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$28,550,479종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations against Iran since February 2026 have centered on airstrikes targeting nuclear and missile sites, naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, and limited strikes on facilities supporting attacks on US vessels, without any ground offensive to establish territorial control. President Trump has rejected recent Iranian ceasefire proposals while signaling continued pressure through these measures and troop deployments, yet Pentagon planning has prioritized special operations and air-naval actions over large-scale ground commitments. Ongoing diplomatic mediation and reluctance to incur the costs of occupation have reinforced trader consensus that the US will not launch an invasion meeting the market's criteria before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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