Iran’s next scheduled presidential election follows the four-year constitutional term that began after the 2024 vote, placing the contest in 2028. No official announcement, legislative action, or acute political crisis has emerged in recent weeks to justify advancing the date to June 30. Traders therefore assign a 98.3 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any procedural trigger such as the death or incapacitation of the incumbent or a no-confidence mechanism. The only realistic paths that could still alter the outcome within the narrow window involve unforeseen leadership changes or sudden domestic upheaval, both of which remain low-probability events given current institutional continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$218,592 거래량
$218,592 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$218,592 거래량
$218,592 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran’s next scheduled presidential election follows the four-year constitutional term that began after the 2024 vote, placing the contest in 2028. No official announcement, legislative action, or acute political crisis has emerged in recent weeks to justify advancing the date to June 30. Traders therefore assign a 98.3 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any procedural trigger such as the death or incapacitation of the incumbent or a no-confidence mechanism. The only realistic paths that could still alter the outcome within the narrow window involve unforeseen leadership changes or sudden domestic upheaval, both of which remain low-probability events given current institutional continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
거래량
$218,592종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran’s next scheduled presidential election follows the four-year constitutional term that began after the 2024 vote, placing the contest in 2028. No official announcement, legislative action, or acute political crisis has emerged in recent weeks to justify advancing the date to June 30. Traders therefore assign a 98.3 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any procedural trigger such as the death or incapacitation of the incumbent or a no-confidence mechanism. The only realistic paths that could still alter the outcome within the narrow window involve unforeseen leadership changes or sudden domestic upheaval, both of which remain low-probability events given current institutional continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$218,592종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s next scheduled presidential election follows the four-year constitutional term that began after the 2024 vote, placing the contest in 2028. No official announcement, legislative action, or acute political crisis has emerged in recent weeks to justify advancing the date to June 30. Traders therefore assign a 98.3 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any procedural trigger such as the death or incapacitation of the incumbent or a no-confidence mechanism. The only realistic paths that could still alter the outcome within the narrow window involve unforeseen leadership changes or sudden domestic upheaval, both of which remain low-probability events given current institutional continuity.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문