Trump administration's Gaza peace plan, advancing to phase two in January 2026 with demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction, has stalled amid delays in deploying a multinational International Stabilization Force, prompting the US to shutter its flagship Gaza mission on May 1 and slash support personnel from 190 to 40. CENTCOM's November 2025 statement explicitly ruled out US troops entering Gaza, while recent Middle East buildups—adding thousands aboard carriers like USS George H.W. Bush—target broader tensions with Iran rather than Gaza operations. Absent official announcements or verified ground deployments into the Strip, traders price an 87% implied probability against US forces there before 2027, viewing diplomatic and logistical hurdles as substantial barriers despite international pledges.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$50,136 거래량
$50,136 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$50,136 거래량
$50,136 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration's Gaza peace plan, advancing to phase two in January 2026 with demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction, has stalled amid delays in deploying a multinational International Stabilization Force, prompting the US to shutter its flagship Gaza mission on May 1 and slash support personnel from 190 to 40. CENTCOM's November 2025 statement explicitly ruled out US troops entering Gaza, while recent Middle East buildups—adding thousands aboard carriers like USS George H.W. Bush—target broader tensions with Iran rather than Gaza operations. Absent official announcements or verified ground deployments into the Strip, traders price an 87% implied probability against US forces there before 2027, viewing diplomatic and logistical hurdles as substantial barriers despite international pledges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ET
거래량
$50,136종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration's Gaza peace plan, advancing to phase two in January 2026 with demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction, has stalled amid delays in deploying a multinational International Stabilization Force, prompting the US to shutter its flagship Gaza mission on May 1 and slash support personnel from 190 to 40. CENTCOM's November 2025 statement explicitly ruled out US troops entering Gaza, while recent Middle East buildups—adding thousands aboard carriers like USS George H.W. Bush—target broader tensions with Iran rather than Gaza operations. Absent official announcements or verified ground deployments into the Strip, traders price an 87% implied probability against US forces there before 2027, viewing diplomatic and logistical hurdles as substantial barriers despite international pledges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$50,136종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration's Gaza peace plan, advancing to phase two in January 2026 with demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction, has stalled amid delays in deploying a multinational International Stabilization Force, prompting the US to shutter its flagship Gaza mission on May 1 and slash support personnel from 190 to 40. CENTCOM's November 2025 statement explicitly ruled out US troops entering Gaza, while recent Middle East buildups—adding thousands aboard carriers like USS George H.W. Bush—target broader tensions with Iran rather than Gaza operations. Absent official announcements or verified ground deployments into the Strip, traders price an 87% implied probability against US forces there before 2027, viewing diplomatic and logistical hurdles as substantial barriers despite international pledges.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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