US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and currently prioritize capabilities for potential future use over an imminent amphibious assault. Ongoing gray-zone activities, including routine People’s Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and coast guard patrols near outlying islands, have not escalated into preparations such as large-scale troop mobilizations or sealift assembly. Beijing has instead adjusted its messaging to emphasize Taiwan’s 2028 elections and potential shifts under a different governing coalition, while Taiwan continues bolstering defenses through forward-deployed rocket systems and expanded drone production. These factors, combined with high operational risks and deterrence from US arms support, underpin trader consensus favoring no military clash before the end of 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,789,765 거래량
$1,789,765 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$1,789,765 거래량
$1,789,765 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and currently prioritize capabilities for potential future use over an imminent amphibious assault. Ongoing gray-zone activities, including routine People’s Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and coast guard patrols near outlying islands, have not escalated into preparations such as large-scale troop mobilizations or sealift assembly. Beijing has instead adjusted its messaging to emphasize Taiwan’s 2028 elections and potential shifts under a different governing coalition, while Taiwan continues bolstering defenses through forward-deployed rocket systems and expanded drone production. These factors, combined with high operational risks and deterrence from US arms support, underpin trader consensus favoring no military clash before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
거래량
$1,789,765종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and currently prioritize capabilities for potential future use over an imminent amphibious assault. Ongoing gray-zone activities, including routine People’s Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and coast guard patrols near outlying islands, have not escalated into preparations such as large-scale troop mobilizations or sealift assembly. Beijing has instead adjusted its messaging to emphasize Taiwan’s 2028 elections and potential shifts under a different governing coalition, while Taiwan continues bolstering defenses through forward-deployed rocket systems and expanded drone production. These factors, combined with high operational risks and deterrence from US arms support, underpin trader consensus favoring no military clash before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$1,789,765종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for military action against Taiwan and currently prioritize capabilities for potential future use over an imminent amphibious assault. Ongoing gray-zone activities, including routine People’s Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and coast guard patrols near outlying islands, have not escalated into preparations such as large-scale troop mobilizations or sealift assembly. Beijing has instead adjusted its messaging to emphasize Taiwan’s 2028 elections and potential shifts under a different governing coalition, while Taiwan continues bolstering defenses through forward-deployed rocket systems and expanded drone production. These factors, combined with high operational risks and deterrence from US arms support, underpin trader consensus favoring no military clash before the end of 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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