US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plans for military action against Taiwan, contributing to the strong trader consensus reflected in the 86.5 percent implied probability against an invasion by mid-2027. The May 13–15 summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping featured Taiwan as a central topic, with Beijing reiterating longstanding objections to US arms sales while both sides avoided major agreements or escalatory rhetoric. Routine People's Liberation Army activities around Taiwan have remained at subdued levels through April and early May, with fewer air defense identification zone incursions than in prior periods. Taiwan's recent approval of additional defense funding further supports deterrence without triggering escalation. Potential shifts could arise from abrupt changes in cross-strait military posture or outcomes of ongoing bilateral talks, though no such developments have materialized.