Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$7,950,475 거래량
$7,950,475 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$7,950,475 거래량
$7,950,475 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
거래량
$7,950,475종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$7,950,475종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30 at just 1.8%, reflecting high confidence in sustained deterrence amid absent invasion signals. Recent US intelligence assessments from March 2026 indicate Beijing views near-term military action as prohibitively costly, prioritizing economic development over escalation, with no observable PLA preparations like large-scale amphibious rehearsals or troop massing in the Taiwan Strait over the past 30 days. Routine military exercises persist, but Taiwan's defenses, bolstered by US arms sales and Japan alliances, maintain de-escalation. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden diplomatic ruptures, accidental clashes, or leadership directives, though the short timeline to resolution limits feasibility without precursors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문