Recent diplomatic engagement through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, forms the core driver behind the 77% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end. The U.S. Trade Representative opened a public comment period on June 2 for targeted reciprocal reductions on non-sensitive goods, signaling active implementation of summit commitments on agricultural purchases and managed trade frameworks. Prior extensions of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026, alongside China's commitments on soybean volumes and exclusion processes, have sustained momentum toward further bilateral adjustments. Traders appear to view these procedural steps and scheduled negotiations as increasing the likelihood of formalizing additional tariff terms before December 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$17,516 거래량
$17,516 거래량
2026.12.31
$17,516 거래량
$17,516 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic engagement through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, forms the core driver behind the 77% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end. The U.S. Trade Representative opened a public comment period on June 2 for targeted reciprocal reductions on non-sensitive goods, signaling active implementation of summit commitments on agricultural purchases and managed trade frameworks. Prior extensions of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026, alongside China's commitments on soybean volumes and exclusion processes, have sustained momentum toward further bilateral adjustments. Traders appear to view these procedural steps and scheduled negotiations as increasing the likelihood of formalizing additional tariff terms before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
거래량
$17,516종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic engagement through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, forms the core driver behind the 77% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end. The U.S. Trade Representative opened a public comment period on June 2 for targeted reciprocal reductions on non-sensitive goods, signaling active implementation of summit commitments on agricultural purchases and managed trade frameworks. Prior extensions of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026, alongside China's commitments on soybean volumes and exclusion processes, have sustained momentum toward further bilateral adjustments. Traders appear to view these procedural steps and scheduled negotiations as increasing the likelihood of formalizing additional tariff terms before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$17,516종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic engagement through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, forms the core driver behind the 77% implied probability for a tariff agreement by year-end. The U.S. Trade Representative opened a public comment period on June 2 for targeted reciprocal reductions on non-sensitive goods, signaling active implementation of summit commitments on agricultural purchases and managed trade frameworks. Prior extensions of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026, alongside China's commitments on soybean volumes and exclusion processes, have sustained momentum toward further bilateral adjustments. Traders appear to view these procedural steps and scheduled negotiations as increasing the likelihood of formalizing additional tariff terms before December 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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