Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at just 24.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled indirect ceasefire negotiations amid the ongoing war now in its 12th week. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a one-page memorandum—dubbed a "piece of garbage"—as unacceptable without upfront nuclear concessions, including curbs on uranium enrichment, has dashed early May optimism around a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch 30 days of detailed talks on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program. With persistent deadlock over enrichment rights and ballistic missiles, and no agreement even on preliminaries despite Omani mediation, traders see formidable barriers to a comprehensive accord like the JCPOA within the tight timeline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,842,690 거래량
$1,842,690 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$1,842,690 거래량
$1,842,690 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at just 24.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled indirect ceasefire negotiations amid the ongoing war now in its 12th week. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a one-page memorandum—dubbed a "piece of garbage"—as unacceptable without upfront nuclear concessions, including curbs on uranium enrichment, has dashed early May optimism around a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch 30 days of detailed talks on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program. With persistent deadlock over enrichment rights and ballistic missiles, and no agreement even on preliminaries despite Omani mediation, traders see formidable barriers to a comprehensive accord like the JCPOA within the tight timeline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
거래량
$1,842,690종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at just 24.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled indirect ceasefire negotiations amid the ongoing war now in its 12th week. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a one-page memorandum—dubbed a "piece of garbage"—as unacceptable without upfront nuclear concessions, including curbs on uranium enrichment, has dashed early May optimism around a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch 30 days of detailed talks on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program. With persistent deadlock over enrichment rights and ballistic missiles, and no agreement even on preliminaries despite Omani mediation, traders see formidable barriers to a comprehensive accord like the JCPOA within the tight timeline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$1,842,690종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at just 24.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled indirect ceasefire negotiations amid the ongoing war now in its 12th week. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Tehran's counterproposal to a one-page memorandum—dubbed a "piece of garbage"—as unacceptable without upfront nuclear concessions, including curbs on uranium enrichment, has dashed early May optimism around a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch 30 days of detailed talks on sanctions relief and Iran's nuclear program. With persistent deadlock over enrichment rights and ballistic missiles, and no agreement even on preliminaries despite Omani mediation, traders see formidable barriers to a comprehensive accord like the JCPOA within the tight timeline, though diplomatic breakthroughs or escalation could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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