Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—which removed 13% of the cartel's production capacity—traders have priced a 69.5% implied probability against another member exiting this year, reflecting reaffirmed unity among remaining producers. Iraq explicitly stated no plans to leave, Russia pledged to stay in OPEC+ despite the blow, and a UAE official ruled out further departures amid reviews of multilateral ties. OPEC+ responded with modest output increases for May and June to stabilize markets, signaling coordination under Saudi leadership. While speculation persists on quota frustrations for Kazakhstan or Iraq, absent official announcements or escalating diplomatic rifts two weeks post-exit, the wisdom of crowds favors stability through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$92,402 거래량
$92,402 거래량
2026.12.31
$92,402 거래량
$92,402 거래량
2026.12.31
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—which removed 13% of the cartel's production capacity—traders have priced a 69.5% implied probability against another member exiting this year, reflecting reaffirmed unity among remaining producers. Iraq explicitly stated no plans to leave, Russia pledged to stay in OPEC+ despite the blow, and a UAE official ruled out further departures amid reviews of multilateral ties. OPEC+ responded with modest output increases for May and June to stabilize markets, signaling coordination under Saudi leadership. While speculation persists on quota frustrations for Kazakhstan or Iraq, absent official announcements or escalating diplomatic rifts two weeks post-exit, the wisdom of crowds favors stability through year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
거래량
$92,402종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—which removed 13% of the cartel's production capacity—traders have priced a 69.5% implied probability against another member exiting this year, reflecting reaffirmed unity among remaining producers. Iraq explicitly stated no plans to leave, Russia pledged to stay in OPEC+ despite the blow, and a UAE official ruled out further departures amid reviews of multilateral ties. OPEC+ responded with modest output increases for May and June to stabilize markets, signaling coordination under Saudi leadership. While speculation persists on quota frustrations for Kazakhstan or Iraq, absent official announcements or escalating diplomatic rifts two weeks post-exit, the wisdom of crowds favors stability through year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$92,402종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—which removed 13% of the cartel's production capacity—traders have priced a 69.5% implied probability against another member exiting this year, reflecting reaffirmed unity among remaining producers. Iraq explicitly stated no plans to leave, Russia pledged to stay in OPEC+ despite the blow, and a UAE official ruled out further departures amid reviews of multilateral ties. OPEC+ responded with modest output increases for May and June to stabilize markets, signaling coordination under Saudi leadership. While speculation persists on quota frustrations for Kazakhstan or Iraq, absent official announcements or escalating diplomatic rifts two weeks post-exit, the wisdom of crowds favors stability through year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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