Iran’s refusal to relinquish its asserted right to uranium enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains the central obstacle in ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected demands to halt all enrichment activities, even as reports from May and early June 2026 indicate tentative progress on disposing of existing highly enriched stockpiles and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Recent statements from Tehran emphasize that any memorandum of understanding would preserve current enrichment levels without expansion, while US negotiators continue to press for stricter curbs as a core condition. These entrenched positions, amid unresolved technical details and Iranian skepticism over rapid timelines, underpin traders’ 61% implied probability that no agreement to end enrichment will be reached by July 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$44,966 거래량
$44,966 거래량
2026.07.31
$44,966 거래량
$44,966 거래량
2026.07.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s refusal to relinquish its asserted right to uranium enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains the central obstacle in ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected demands to halt all enrichment activities, even as reports from May and early June 2026 indicate tentative progress on disposing of existing highly enriched stockpiles and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Recent statements from Tehran emphasize that any memorandum of understanding would preserve current enrichment levels without expansion, while US negotiators continue to press for stricter curbs as a core condition. These entrenched positions, amid unresolved technical details and Iranian skepticism over rapid timelines, underpin traders’ 61% implied probability that no agreement to end enrichment will be reached by July 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
거래량
$44,966종료일
2026.07.31마켓 개설일
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s refusal to relinquish its asserted right to uranium enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains the central obstacle in ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected demands to halt all enrichment activities, even as reports from May and early June 2026 indicate tentative progress on disposing of existing highly enriched stockpiles and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Recent statements from Tehran emphasize that any memorandum of understanding would preserve current enrichment levels without expansion, while US negotiators continue to press for stricter curbs as a core condition. These entrenched positions, amid unresolved technical details and Iranian skepticism over rapid timelines, underpin traders’ 61% implied probability that no agreement to end enrichment will be reached by July 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$44,966종료일
2026.07.31마켓 개설일
May 25, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s refusal to relinquish its asserted right to uranium enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty remains the central obstacle in ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks. Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected demands to halt all enrichment activities, even as reports from May and early June 2026 indicate tentative progress on disposing of existing highly enriched stockpiles and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Recent statements from Tehran emphasize that any memorandum of understanding would preserve current enrichment levels without expansion, while US negotiators continue to press for stricter curbs as a core condition. These entrenched positions, amid unresolved technical details and Iranian skepticism over rapid timelines, underpin traders’ 61% implied probability that no agreement to end enrichment will be reached by July 31.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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