Pakistan leads trader consensus at 44% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, narrowly ahead of no meeting by June 30 at 39%, due to its established role as sole mediator following the failed April 11-12 Islamabad Talks, where US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials negotiated 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz access, or sanctions relief. Recent backchannel proposals via Pakistan, including Iran's May 1 offer dismissed by President Trump, and White House endorsement of Islamabad as next venue sustain momentum, but US senators question Pakistan's neutrality amid unverified reports of Iranian aircraft basing there. The tight race persists amid stalled progress and fragile ceasefire extensions; confirmed US envoy travel to Pakistan or a mediator switch could decisively shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트파키스탄 44.1%
6월 30일까지 회담 없음 39.0%
스위스 3.9%
기타 2.8%
$4,830,140 거래량
$4,830,140 거래량
2026.06.30
파키스탄
44%
6월 30일까지 회담 없음
39%
스위스
4%
기타
3%
카타르
1%
오만
1%
기타 - 유럽
1%
터키
<1%
오스트리아
<1%
미국
<1%
이집트
<1%
기타 - 중동/북아프리카
<1%
사우디아라비아
<1%
러시아
<1%
아랍에미리트
<1%
이란
<1%
이라크
<1%
카자흐스탄
<1%
이탈리아
<1%
파키스탄 44.1%
6월 30일까지 회담 없음 39.0%
스위스 3.9%
기타 2.8%
$4,830,140 거래량
$4,830,140 거래량
2026.06.30
파키스탄
$679,659 거래량
44%
6월 30일까지 회담 없음
$818,386 거래량
39%
스위스
$316,455 거래량
4%
기타
$264,569 거래량
3%
카타르
$277,914 거래량
1%
오만
$290,179 거래량
1%
기타 - 유럽
$274,950 거래량
1%
터키
$293,222 거래량
<1%
오스트리아
$202,168 거래량
<1%
미국
$178,938 거래량
<1%
이집트
$205,565 거래량
<1%
기타 - 중동/북아프리카
$190,953 거래량
<1%
사우디아라비아
$213,527 거래량
<1%
러시아
$202,353 거래량
<1%
아랍에미리트
$129,812 거래량
<1%
이란
$61,821 거래량
<1%
이라크
$53,364 거래량
<1%
카자흐스탄
$70,556 거래량
<1%
이탈리아
$105,829 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Pakistan leads trader consensus at 44% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, narrowly ahead of no meeting by June 30 at 39%, due to its established role as sole mediator following the failed April 11-12 Islamabad Talks, where US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials negotiated 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz access, or sanctions relief. Recent backchannel proposals via Pakistan, including Iran's May 1 offer dismissed by President Trump, and White House endorsement of Islamabad as next venue sustain momentum, but US senators question Pakistan's neutrality amid unverified reports of Iranian aircraft basing there. The tight race persists amid stalled progress and fragile ceasefire extensions; confirmed US envoy travel to Pakistan or a mediator switch could decisively shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
거래량
$4,830,140종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Pakistan leads trader consensus at 44% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, narrowly ahead of no meeting by June 30 at 39%, due to its established role as sole mediator following the failed April 11-12 Islamabad Talks, where US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials negotiated 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz access, or sanctions relief. Recent backchannel proposals via Pakistan, including Iran's May 1 offer dismissed by President Trump, and White House endorsement of Islamabad as next venue sustain momentum, but US senators question Pakistan's neutrality amid unverified reports of Iranian aircraft basing there. The tight race persists amid stalled progress and fragile ceasefire extensions; confirmed US envoy travel to Pakistan or a mediator switch could decisively shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$4,830,140종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pakistan leads trader consensus at 44% implied probability for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, narrowly ahead of no meeting by June 30 at 39%, due to its established role as sole mediator following the failed April 11-12 Islamabad Talks, where US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials negotiated 21 hours without agreement on nuclear curbs, Strait of Hormuz access, or sanctions relief. Recent backchannel proposals via Pakistan, including Iran's May 1 offer dismissed by President Trump, and White House endorsement of Islamabad as next venue sustain momentum, but US senators question Pakistan's neutrality amid unverified reports of Iranian aircraft basing there. The tight race persists amid stalled progress and fragile ceasefire extensions; confirmed US envoy travel to Pakistan or a mediator switch could decisively shift odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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