Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, have shown incremental progress since April 2026 talks, with Iran reviewing a fresh US proposal as of early May that includes a 12-year uranium enrichment halt and phased sanctions relief in exchange for stockpile dilution and export. President Trump's public signals of openness to a 20-year nuclear suspension—stronger than the 2015 JCPOA—coupled with Iranian counteroffers on highly enriched uranium, have boosted trader consensus to 59.5% Yes, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid a fragile Gulf ceasefire. Sticking points persist on enrichment duration, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, with next Islamabad round eyed soon; historical patterns favor interim frameworks before full accords.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$1,328,304 거래량
$1,328,304 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$1,328,304 거래량
$1,328,304 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, have shown incremental progress since April 2026 talks, with Iran reviewing a fresh US proposal as of early May that includes a 12-year uranium enrichment halt and phased sanctions relief in exchange for stockpile dilution and export. President Trump's public signals of openness to a 20-year nuclear suspension—stronger than the 2015 JCPOA—coupled with Iranian counteroffers on highly enriched uranium, have boosted trader consensus to 59.5% Yes, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid a fragile Gulf ceasefire. Sticking points persist on enrichment duration, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, with next Islamabad round eyed soon; historical patterns favor interim frameworks before full accords.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
거래량
$1,328,304종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, have shown incremental progress since April 2026 talks, with Iran reviewing a fresh US proposal as of early May that includes a 12-year uranium enrichment halt and phased sanctions relief in exchange for stockpile dilution and export. President Trump's public signals of openness to a 20-year nuclear suspension—stronger than the 2015 JCPOA—coupled with Iranian counteroffers on highly enriched uranium, have boosted trader consensus to 59.5% Yes, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid a fragile Gulf ceasefire. Sticking points persist on enrichment duration, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, with next Islamabad round eyed soon; historical patterns favor interim frameworks before full accords.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
거래량
$1,328,304종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, have shown incremental progress since April 2026 talks, with Iran reviewing a fresh US proposal as of early May that includes a 12-year uranium enrichment halt and phased sanctions relief in exchange for stockpile dilution and export. President Trump's public signals of openness to a 20-year nuclear suspension—stronger than the 2015 JCPOA—coupled with Iranian counteroffers on highly enriched uranium, have boosted trader consensus to 59.5% Yes, reflecting the wisdom of crowds amid a fragile Gulf ceasefire. Sticking points persist on enrichment duration, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, with next Islamabad round eyed soon; historical patterns favor interim frameworks before full accords.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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